Using the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version in sexual violence risk assessments: Updated risk categories and recidivism estimates from a multisite sample of treated sexual offenders.

Abstract

The present study sought to develop updated risk categories and recidivism estimates for the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003-2017), a sexual offender risk assessment and treatment planning tool. The overarching purpose was to increase the clarity and accuracy of communicating risk assessment information that includes a systematic incorporation of new information (i.e., change) to modify risk estimates. Four treated samples of sexual offenders with VRS-SO pretreatment, posttreatment, and Static-99R ratings were combined with a minimum follow-up period of 10-years postrelease (N = 913). Logistic regression was used to model 5- and 10-year sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism estimates across 6 different regression models employing specific risk and change score information from the VRS-SO and/or Static-99R. A rationale is presented for clinical applications of select models and the necessity of controlling for baseline risk when utilizing change information across repeated assessments. Information concerning relative risk (percentiles) and absolute risk (recidivism estimates) is integrated with common risk assessment language guidelines to generate new risk categories for the VRS-SO. Guidelines for model selection and forensic clinical application of the risk estimates are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record

The Predictive Properties of Psychiatric Diagnoses, Dynamic Risk and Dynamic Risk Change Assessed by the VRS-SO in Forensically Admitted and Released Sexual Offenders

“…The Static-99 total score for the released sample was M = 4.66 (SD = 2.43) representing the risk category referenced as Level IVa or above average (6,13). The total score of the VRS-SO (pretreatment) was M = 46.93 (SD = 9.34), which was also Level IVa, above average (16). The VRS-SO pretreatment dynamic score was M = 37.33 (SD = 6.71).…”

“…The Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO; 15) is a risk assessment and treatment-planning tool that identifies criminogenic needs to be targeted for sexual offense specific treatment. In addition, the VRS-SO assesses change in risk relevant targets and, through use of logistic regression algorithms, can translate such changes into an adjustment of reoffense probabilities (16). Dynamic item ratings further aid understanding of the individual case and inform case formulation.…”

Predictive Properties of the Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offense Version as a Function of Age

“…Five stages have been operationalized for each of the 17 dynamic items: precontemplation, contemplation, preparation, action, and maintenance. Progression from one stage to next is credited with a 0.5-point deduction, two stages, 1-point and so on; the one exception is progress from precontemplation to An Excel workbook, termed the "VRS-SO Calculator" (Mundt, 2015) has been developed for the VRS-SO applying the results of logistic regression to calculate 5 and 10-year rates of sexual and violent recidivism associated with specific VRS-SO risk and change scores (Olver et al, 2018). The calculator can be accessed online for free at https://psynergy.ca/vrs-so.…”

“…5-year logistic regression models: Static-99R and VRS-SO predicted = Static-99R (B 1 = .194), VRSSO dynamic pre (B 1 = .061), change (B 1 = -.143), constant (B 0 = -4.087); VRS-SO predicted = VRS-SO total pre (B 1 = .078), change (B 1 = -.150), constant (B 0 = -4.483). 10-year logistic regression models (see also Olver et al, 2018, Table 3, 39 Note: * significant E/O Index. 5-year (n = 1,268) and 10-year (n = 911) outcome analyses are reported using all available cases.…”

„Die Relevanz eines kohärenten forensischen Beurteilungs- und Behandlungsprozesses“: großer Wurf oder alter Wein in undichtem Schlauch?

“…Für das statische Risiko haben sich hier Instrumente wie der VRAG (Harris et al 1993) oder der Static-99 (Hanson und Thornton 1999) etabliert, für stabil-dynamische Risikofaktoren z. B. der Stable-2007(Hanson und Harris 2007 oder jüngst für Gewaltund Sexualstraftäter auch die VRS (Lewis et al 2013) und die VRS-SO (Olver et al 2018;Eher et al 2020). Faktoren der Ansprechbarkeit ("responsivity"), wie Intelligenz oder Psychopathie, können ebenfalls mit gängigen Instrumenten gemessen werden, und auch die Verlaufsmessung gelingt mit einem solchen Vorgehen.…”