Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

Hekkenberg, M.; Moll, Henri; Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2009.07.037

Cited by 91 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…The degree-day methodology assumes a V-shaped temperature-energy consumption relationship, as shown in Fig. 2 (Jager 1983;Amato et al 2005;Hekkenberg et al 2009). As outdoor temperatures deviate above or below the base temperature, energy demand increases proportionally.…”

Section: February 2014mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Estimation of Base Temperature for Heating and Cooling Degree-Days for South Korea

Lee

Baek

Cho

2014

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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In South Korea, heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) have been widely used as climatic indicators for the assessment of the impact of climate change, but arbitrary or customary base temperatures have been used for calculation of HDD and CDD. The purpose of this study is to determine real base temperatures to accurately calculate HDD and CDD for South Korea, using monthly electric energy consumption and mean temperature data from 2001 to 2010. The results reveal that the regional electricity demand generally depends on air temperature in a V-shaped curve in urban settings but in an L-shaped curve in rural settings, indicating that the sensitivity of the electricity demand to the temperature change is affected by the size of cities. The South Korean regional base temperatures, defined by a piecewise linear regression method, range from 14.78 to 19.48C. These results suggest that the assessment of climate change impacts on the energy sector in South Korea should be carried out on a regional scale.

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Section: February 2014mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Estimation of Base Temperature for Heating and Cooling Degree-Days for South Korea

Lee

Baek

Cho

2014

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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“…[20]) instead of the true building balance point or simulation approach (see however, Refs. [2,6,15,19,20,41]). Energy consumption is generally correlated with changes in HDD or CDD in the same periodicity (i.e., monthly or annual).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Impacts of climate change on energy consumption and peak demand in buildings: A detailed regional approach

Dirks¹,

Gorrissen²,

Hathaway³

et al. 2015

Energy

198

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a b s t r a c tThis paper presents the results of numerous commercial and residential building simulations, with the purpose of examining the impact of climate change on peak and annual building energy consumption over the portion of the EIC (Eastern Interconnection) located in the United States. The climate change scenario considered includes changes in mean climate characteristics as well as changes in the frequency and duration of intense weather events. Simulations were performed using the BEND (Building ENergy Demand) model which is a detailed building analysis platform utilizing EnergyPlus™ as the simulation engine. Over 26,000 building configurations of different types, sizes, vintages, and characteristics representing the population of buildings within the EIC, are modeled across the three EIC time zones using the future climate from 100 target region locations, resulting in nearly 180,000 spatially relevant simulated demand profiles for three years selected to be representative of the general climate trend over the century. This approach provides a heretofore unprecedented level of specificity across multiple spectrums including spatial, temporal, and building characteristics. This capability enables the ability to perform detailed hourly impact studies of building adaptation and mitigation strategies on energy use and electricity peak demand within the context of the entire grid and economy.

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“…In addition to these human drivers, the air temperature also influences the electricity consumption. The so-called Temperature Dependence Pattern [31] in Italy presents increased consumption during hot and cold days, related to energy needs for cooling and heating systems respectively.…”

Section: Regional Energy Loadmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Combined Solar and Run-of-River Power in Northern Italy

et al. 2018

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Moving towards energy systems with high variable renewable energy shares requires a good understanding of the impacts of climate change on the energy penetration. To do so, most prior impact studies have considered climate projections available from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Other studies apply sensitivity analyses on the climate variables that drive the system behavior to inform how much the system changes due to climate change. In the present work, we apply the Decision Scaling approach, a framework merging these two approaches, for analyzing a renewables-only scenario for the electric system of Northern Italy where the main renewable sources are solar and hydropower. Decision Scaling explores the system sensibility to a range of future plausible climate states. GCM projections are considered to estimate probabilities of the future climate states. We focus on the likely future energy mix within the region (25% of solar photovoltaic and 75% of hydropower). We also carry out a sensitivity analysis according to the storage capacity. The results show that run-of-the river power generation from this Alpine area is expected to increase although the average inflow decreases under climate change. They also show that the penetration rate is expected to increase for systems with storage capacity less than one month of average load and inversely for higher storage capacity.

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Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

Cited by 91 publications

References 23 publications

The Estimation of Base Temperature for Heating and Cooling Degree-Days for South Korea

The Estimation of Base Temperature for Heating and Cooling Degree-Days for South Korea

Impacts of climate change on energy consumption and peak demand in buildings: A detailed regional approach

Impact of Climate Change on Combined Solar and Run-of-River Power in Northern Italy

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