Dynamics and Impacting Factors of Ice Regimes in Latvia Inland and Coastal Waters

Kļaviņš, Māris; Avotniece, Zanita; Rodinovs, Valērijs

doi:10.1515/prolas-2016-0059

Cited by 7 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…In the Baltic Sea, ISD is highly variable and depends on the region, with the longest one observed in the Bothnian Bay and decreasing southward [9]. Studies of the ice regime of the Gulf of Riga and along the coast of Latvia [59,65] gave results very similar to our study. The severity of winters in 2002-2003, 2005-2006, 2009-2010, and 2010-2011, and milder winters observed in 2006-2007 and 2007-2008 over these regions correspond well with our results.…”

Section: Ice Season Durationsupporting

confidence: 86%

“…The shortening of the ice season duration in the CL assessed from the updated ISD record amounts to a rate of 1.6 days year −1 during the last 15 years, while the lagoon-averaged ISD shows an even stronger tendency of 2.3 days year −1 . These values are much higher than 0.64 days year −1 as reported by [60] along the Lithuanian Baltic Sea coast for the period of 1960-2006, by [65] along the Latvian coast (0.3 days year −1 ) and in the Gulf of Riga (0.05 days year −1 ), or 0.6 days year -1 as reported by [74] for the eastern Gulf of Finland. While the length of our record is shorter than those mentioned above and the ISD trends reported here were not significant, it seems feasible to expect that a semi-enclosed coastal lagoon may experience more pronounced ice regime changes than other parts of the larger Baltic Sea, especially during the recent years.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 52%

“…In turn, the North Atlantic Oscillation is a very important phenomenon affecting the variations of the climate in Europe [61]. For example, [65] showed that processes over the North Atlantic are the driving force for the sea ice regime along the nearby coast of Latvia. Our results also show a strong negative correlation between the ISD and winter NAO index.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Remote Sensing of Ice Phenology and Dynamics of Europe’s Largest Coastal Lagoon (The Curonian Lagoon)

2019

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A first-ever spatially detailed record of ice cover conditions in the Curonian Lagoon (CL), Europe’s largest coastal lagoon located in the southeastern Baltic Sea, is presented. The multi-mission synthetic aperture radar (SAR) measurements acquired in 2002–2017 by Envisat ASAR, RADARSAT-2, Sentinel-1 A/B, and supplemented by the cloud-free moderate imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, are used to document the ice cover properties in the CL. As shown, satellite observations reveal a better performance over in situ records in defining the key stages of ice formation and decay in the CL. Using advantages of both data sources, an updated ice season duration (ISD) record is obtained to adequately describe the ice cover season in the CL. High-resolution ISD maps provide important spatial details of ice growth and decay in the CL. As found, ice cover resides longest in the south-eastern CL and along the eastern coast, including the Nemunas Delta, while the shortest ice season is observed in the northern CL. During the melting season, the ice melt pattern is clearly shaped by the direction of prevailing winds, and ice drift velocities obtained from a limited number of observations range within 0.03–0.14 m/s. The pronounced shortening of the ice season duration in the CL is observed at a rate of 1.6–2.3 days year‒1 during 2002–2017, which is much higher than reported for the nearby Baltic Sea regions. While the timing of the freeze onset and full freezing has not changed much, the dates of the final melt onset and last observation of ice have a clear decreasing pattern toward an earlier ice break-up and complete melt-off due to an increase of air temperature strongly linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Notably, the correlation between the ISD, air temperature, and winter NAO index is substantially higher when considering the lagoon-averaged ISD values derived from satellite observations compared to those derived from coastal records. The latter clearly demonstrated the richness of the satellite observations that should definitely be exploited in regional ice monitoring programs.

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Section: Ice Season Durationsupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 52%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Remote Sensing of Ice Phenology and Dynamics of Europe’s Largest Coastal Lagoon (The Curonian Lagoon)

2019

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“…New literature demonstrates almost unanimously significant changes towards earlier ice break-up, later freeze-up, and shorter duration of ice cover across the Baltic Sea catchment, apart from the coldest climate regime in Lapland. The available centennial data indicate that the icecover duration has decreased by several days per century, whereas the intensified warming in recent decades has produced a similar change per decade (Efremova et al, 2013;Filazzola et al, 2020;Kļaviņš et al, 2016;Knoll et al, 2019;Korhonen, 2019;Lopez et al, 2019;Nõges and Nõges, 2014;O'Reilly et al, 2015;Ptak et al, 2020;Sharma et al, 2016;Sharma et al, 2020;Wrzesiński et al, 2015). Some lakes have, however, responded only weakly to the warming trend, such a lake Peipsi in Estonia, probably due to increasing snowfall.…”

Section: Lake Icementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary

Meier

Kniebusch

Dieterich

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarized and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focusses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in paleo-, historical and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments remain still valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, e.g. for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution and new scenario simulations with improved models, e.g. for glaciers, lake ice and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before, because more models can be included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth System have been studied and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication and climate change. New data sets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal time scales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first paleoclimate simulations regionalized for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics is dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterized by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern sub-basins and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern sub-basins.

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“…Accordingly, a change towards milder winters has been observed which is characterized by a decrease of maximum ice cover extent, ice thickness, and ice season duration [4,[8][9][10][11]. A pronounced decrease of the ice season duration was also reported for the Southeastern Baltic Sea [12][13][14], where according to [12], it has decreased by 50% during the 1961-2005 period equivalent to the ice season shortening by 1 month.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Remote Sensing of Ice Conditions in the Southeastern Baltic Sea and in the Curonian Lagoon and Validation of SAR-Based Ice Thickness Products

et al. 2020

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Here we analyze ice conditions in the Southeastern Baltic (SEB) Sea and in the Curonian Lagoon (CL) using spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data combined with in-situ measurements from coastal stations during four winter seasons between 2009–2013. As shown, the ice conditions in the SEB and in the CL are strongly varying from year to year and do not always correlate with each other. In the SEB, ice cover may form only within 5–15 km band along the coast or spread up to 100 km offshore covering almost the entire region. The mean ice season duration here is 45 days. The CL is almost fully ice-covered every year apart of its northern part subjected to sea water inflow and active shipping. The ice regime is also more stable here, however, it also possesses multiple periods of partial melting and re-freezing. In this study we also perform a validation of three SAR-based ice thickness products (Envisat ASAR 0.5-km and 1-km, and RADARSAT-2 0.5-km) produced by the Finnish Meteorological Institute versus in-situ measurements in the CL. As shown, all satellite products perform rather well for the periods of gradual ice thickness growth. When the ice thickness grows rapidly, all products underestimate the observed values by 10–20 cm (20–50%). The best results were obtained for the RADARSAT-2 ice thickness product with the highest R2 value (0.68) and the root mean square error around 8 cm. The results of the study clearly show that multi-mission SAR data are very useful for spatial and temporal analysis of the ice regime in coastal waters and semi-enclosed shallow water bodies where the number of field observations is insufficient or lacking.

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Dynamics and Impacting Factors of Ice Regimes in Latvia Inland and Coastal Waters

Cited by 7 publications

References 31 publications

Remote Sensing of Ice Phenology and Dynamics of Europe’s Largest Coastal Lagoon (The Curonian Lagoon)

Remote Sensing of Ice Phenology and Dynamics of Europe’s Largest Coastal Lagoon (The Curonian Lagoon)

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary

Remote Sensing of Ice Conditions in the Southeastern Baltic Sea and in the Curonian Lagoon and Validation of SAR-Based Ice Thickness Products

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