Dynamics of 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event and its impact on cold weather over Eurasia: Role of planetary wave reflection

Nath, Debashis; Chen, Wen; Cai, Zelin; Pogoreltsev, Alexander; Wei, Ke

doi:10.1038/srep24174

Cited by 58 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…The fluctuations of the easterlies observed in the reanalysis after the reversal are not captured by any ensemble members. Karpechko et al (2018) showed that most ensemble members underestimated the eddy heat flux at 100 hPa, which is used to characterize the upward planetary wave propagation from the troposphere to the stratosphere since it is proportional to the vertical group velocity of a planetary wave and to the vertical component of the Eliassen-Palm flux (Newman et al, 2001). With the reduction of the lead time, the prediction skill increases rapidly, and all ensemble members of the forecast initialized on 5 February capture the onset of the SSW (Fig.…”

Section: Stratospheric Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During the last decade the events occurred in 2013, 2018 and 2019. The 2013 and 2018 events were followed by cold and snowy weather in Europe (Nath et al, 2016; Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. I.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…External forcings such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) (Holton and Tan, 1980), Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) (Garfinkel et al, 2012) or El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Taguchi and Hartmann, 2006;Song and Son, 2018) may shift the stratosphere towards such anomalous states as SSWs acting as a source of Rossby wave packets or influencing their vertical propagation (Lu et al, 2012). It has been shown that some major SSWs have been preceded by tropospheric blocking events that modify tropospheric planetary waves in such a way that they can influence the onset and type of an SSW (Nishii and Nakamura, 2004;Martius et al, 2009;Woollings et al, 2010;Castanheira and Barriopedro, 2010;Quiroz, 1986). However, SSWs are not always preceded by anomalous tropospheric wave activity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mechanisms and predictability of sudden stratospheric warming in winter 2018

Statnaia

Karpechko

Järvinen

2020

Weather Clim. Dynam.

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Abstract. In the beginning of February 2018 a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation in the polar Northern Hemisphere stratosphere took place, and on 12 February the zonal-mean zonal wind at 60∘ N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly in a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. We investigate the role of the tropospheric forcing in the occurrence of the SSW, its predictability and teleconnection with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by analysing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecast. The SSW was preceded by significant synoptic wave activity over the Pacific and Atlantic basins, which led to the upward propagation of wave packets and resulted in the amplification of a stratospheric wavenumber 2 planetary wave. The dynamical and statistical analyses indicate that the main tropospheric forcing resulted from an anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking, subsequent blocking and upward wave propagation in the Ural Mountains region, in agreement with some previous studies. The ensemble members which predicted the wind reversal also reasonably reproduced this chain of events, from the horizontal propagation of individual wave packets to upward wave-activity fluxes and the amplification of wavenumber 2. On the other hand, the ensemble members which failed to predict the wind reversal also failed to properly capture the blocking event in the key region of the Urals and the associated intensification of upward-propagating wave activity. Finally, a composite analysis suggests that teleconnections associated with the record-breaking MJO phase 6 observed in late January 2018 likely played a role in triggering this SSW event.

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Section: Stratospheric Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mechanisms and predictability of sudden stratospheric warming in winter 2018

Statnaia

Karpechko

Järvinen

2020

Weather Clim. Dynam.

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“…The Pacific blocking also explains why the stratospheric polar vortex was shifted over Eurasia prior to the SSW of January, 2013. Nath et al (2016) found that upward propagating wave packets from North Pacific and Siberian Tundra were possibly responsible for the wave-2 vortex-splitting event. Further they supposed that the wave packets are reflected back downward to central Eurasia due to the strong negative wind shear of the upper stratospheric polar vortex.…”

Section: The Major Ssw Of January 6 2013mentioning

confidence: 97%

Geographical distributions of mesospheric gravity wave activity before and after major sudden stratospheric warmings observed by Aura/MLS

Hocke

Hagen

Schranz

et al. 2019

Preprint

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<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Observations of the global distribution of mesospheric gravity wave activity are rare. To our knowledge there exist only a few articles showing global maps of gravity wave potential energy in the mesosphere derived from observations of the instrument SABER (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) on NASA's satellite TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics). In the present study, we find that the geopotential height (GPH) measurements of the instrument MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) on NASA's satellite Aura are sensitive to mesospheric gravity waves with horizontal wavelengths between 200 and 1500&#8201;km. We apply a data analysis which evaluates the standard deviation of horizontal GPH perturbations at a fixed pressure level and along the orbit of the sounding volume of Aura/MLS. The orographic waves from the Southern Andes in August serve as a test signal for the horizontal resolution and sensitivity of the method. We find enhanced gravity wave activity in the lower, middle, and upper mesosphere in a small region over the Southern Andes. It seems that the horizontal resolution of the mesospheric gravity wave maps provided by Aura/MLS is higher than those of TIMED/SABER. We apply the method to estimate the global distributions of mesospheric gravity wave activity before and after the major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) of January 21, 2006, January 24, 2009, and January 6, 2013 using 30 day intervals of Aura/MLS observations of GPH. It seems that the gravity wave activity in the lower mesosphere over the subtropical convection regions of the summer hemisphere are decreased after the SSW of January 21, 2006. The gravity wave activity in the lower and middle mesosphere over middle and high latitudes (40&#176;&#8201;N to 70&#176;&#8201;N) of the winter hemisphere is decreased after the SSW of January 24, 2009. The major SSW of January 6, 2013 is preceded by enhanced mesospheric gravity wave activity over Eurasia at high latitudes (40&#176;&#8201;N to 60&#176;&#8201;N). This asymmetric gravity wave activity in the lower mesosphere is coincident with a long-lasting stay of the stratospheric polar vortex mainly in the Eurasian longitude sector before the SSW of January 6, 2013. In case of the SSW 2009 and SSW 2013, the gravity wave activity is enhanced at latitudes poleward of 70&#176;&#8201;N in the lower and middle mesosphere after the SSWs.</p>

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“…Stratospheric warming events are known to be forced by upward propagating Rossby and gravity waves from the upper troposphere. In a number of recent studies (e.g., Martius et al 2009;Nath et al 2016;Harada and Hirooka 2017), the two-way coupling between the troposphere and the stratosphere has been demonstrated. The effects of stratospheric dynamics on tropospheric weather were not much acknowledged until late 1990s (see Kidston et al 2015 for a recent review).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Troposphere-Stratosphere Dynamical Coupling in Regard to the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet Variability

Iqbal

Hannachi

Hirooka

et al. 2019

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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For several decades, the interaction between the troposphere and the stratosphere has attracted the attention of climate scientists, not least for the benefit it has on understanding dynamical processes and predictability. This interaction has been revived recently in regard to downward disturbance propagation effects on tropospheric circulations. In the current study, we investigate such interactions over the North Atlantic region in relation to the eddy-driven jet stream. The atmospheric low-frequency variability in the winter over the North Atlantic sector is mainly associated with variations in the latitudinal positions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream. The Japanese Reanalysis JRA-55 data has been used to analyze the jet latitude statistics. The results reveal robust trimodality of the North Atlantic jet reflecting the latitudinal (i.e., northern, central and southern) positions in agreement with other reanalysis products. 30 major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events are analyzed in relation to the three modes or regimes of the eddy-driven jet. The frequency of occurrence of the eddy-driven jet to be in a specific latitudinal position is largely related to the wave amplitude. The stratospheric polar vortex experiences significant changes via upward wave propagation associated with the jet positions. It is found that when the jet is close to its central mode the wave propagation of zonal wave number 2 (WN2) from the troposphere to the stratosphere is significantly high. Eliassen-Palm (EP) fluxes from all waves and zonal wave number 1 (WN1)

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Dynamics of 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event and its impact on cold weather over Eurasia: Role of planetary wave reflection

Cited by 58 publications

References 37 publications

Mechanisms and predictability of sudden stratospheric warming in winter 2018

Mechanisms and predictability of sudden stratospheric warming in winter 2018

Geographical distributions of mesospheric gravity wave activity before and after major sudden stratospheric warmings observed by Aura/MLS

Troposphere-Stratosphere Dynamical Coupling in Regard to the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet Variability

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