Dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic at constant and time-dependent contact rates

Kochańczyk, Marek; Grabowski, Frederic; Lipniacki, Tomasz

doi:10.1101/2020.03.13.20035485

Cited by 8 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Another limitation of our work is that we use best-fitted models to project outcomes of various scenarios into the future. While the use of this combined predictive model/scenario approach can provide insights to possible future behaviors of the pandemic, it does not capture non-constant changes in future parameters related to interventions or virus transmission [ 58 , 59 ]. Nor does it capture the reality that responses by policy-makers are often to the present incidence rate, which are likely to significantly influence the future course of the pandemic in complex ways [ 14 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining predictive models with future change scenarios can produce credible forecasts of COVID-19 futures

2022

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The advent and distribution of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 in late 2020 was thought to represent an effective means to control the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This optimistic expectation was dashed by the omicron waves that emerged over the winter of 2021/2020 even in countries that had managed to vaccinate a large fraction of their populations, raising questions about whether it is possible to use scientific knowledge along with predictive models to anticipate changes and design management measures for the pandemic. Here, we used an extended SEIR model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission sequentially calibrated to data on cases and interventions implemented in Florida until Sept. 24th 2021, and coupled to scenarios of plausible changes in key drivers of viral transmission, to evaluate the capacity of such a tool for exploring the future of the pandemic in the state. We show that while the introduction of vaccinations could have led to the permanent, albeit drawn-out, ending of the pandemic if immunity acts over the long-term, additional futures marked by complicated repeat waves of infection become possible if this immunity wanes over time. We demonstrate that the most recent omicron wave could have been predicted by this hybrid system, but only if timely information on the timing of variant emergence and its epidemiological features were made available. Simulations for the introduction of a new variant exhibiting higher transmissibility than omicron indicated that while this will result in repeat waves, forecasted peaks are unlikely to reach that observed for the omicron wave owing to levels of immunity established over time in the population. These results highlight that while limitations of models calibrated to past data for precisely forecasting the futures of epidemics must be recognized, insightful predictions of pandemic futures are still possible if uncertainties about changes in key drivers are captured appropriately through plausible scenarios.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining predictive models with future change scenarios can produce credible forecasts of COVID-19 futures

2022

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“…Another limitation of our work is that we use best-fitted models to project outcomes of various scenarios into the future. While the use of this combined predictive model/scenario approach can provide insights to possible future behaviors of the pandemic, it does not capture non-constant changes in future parameters related to interventions or virus transmission [57, 58]. Nor does it capture the reality that responses by policy-makers are often to the present incidence rate, which are likely to significantly influence the future course of the pandemic in complex ways [14].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining predictive models with future change scenarios can produce credible forecasts of COVID-19 futures

Newcomb

Michael

2021

Preprint

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The advent of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 and the roll out of mass vaccination programs are thought to present the most effective means to control and even end the ongoing pandemic. However, uncertainties connected with the partial effectiveness of present vaccines, duration of immunity against SARS-CoV-2, and potential impact of variant dynamics, mean that it is still possible that the contagion could follow different future paths in different communities. Here, we use an extended SEIR for SARS-COV-2 transmission sequentially calibrated to data on cases and interventions implemented in the state of Florida to explore how these factors may interact to govern potential pandemic futures. Our data-driven forecasts indicate while the introduction of vaccinations could lead to the permanent, albeit drawn-out, ending of the pandemic if the immunity generated through vaccinations and natural infections acts over the long-term, additional futures could become possible if this immunity wanes over time. These futures will be marked by repeated waves of infection, the amplitude and periodicity of which will depend on the duration over which the immunity generated in a population will operate. We conclude that the possibility of these complex futures will require continual vigilance and perhaps fundamental changes in societal responses if we are to effectively control SARS-CoV-2.

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“…Most of the new cases were imported to have been brought from abroad by the citizens returning after international travel. Quarantine models [8,11] present all three regimes: exponential growth, exponential decay, and constant number of daily cases (linear growth of the total number of infected) [11]. One can expect the transition to the decay and stabilization modes after the M-day.…”

Section: Epidemiological Data and Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coronavirus – Scientific insights and societal aspects

Volpert

Banerjee

d’Onofrio

et al. 2020

Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.

Self Cite

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In December 2019, the first case of infection with a new virus COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2), named coronavirus, was reported in the city of Wuhan, China. At that time, almost nobody paid any attention to it. The new pathogen, however, fast proved to be extremely infectious and dangerous, resulting in about 3–5% mortality. Over the few months that followed, coronavirus has spread over entire world. At the end of March, the total number of infections is fast approaching the psychological threshold of one million, resulting so far in tens of thousands of deaths. Due to the high number of lives already lost and the virus high potential for further spread, and due to its huge overall impact on the economies and societies, it is widely admitted that coronavirus poses the biggest challenge to the humanity after the second World war. The COVID-19 epidemic is provoking numerous questions at all levels. It also shows that modern society is extremely vulnerable and unprepared to such events. A wide scientific and public discussion becomes urgent. Some possible directions of this discussion are suggested in this article.

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Dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic at constant and time-dependent contact rates

Cited by 8 publications

References 17 publications

Combining predictive models with future change scenarios can produce credible forecasts of COVID-19 futures

Combining predictive models with future change scenarios can produce credible forecasts of COVID-19 futures

Combining predictive models with future change scenarios can produce credible forecasts of COVID-19 futures

Coronavirus – Scientific insights and societal aspects

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