Dynamics of energy transitions under changing socioeconomic, technological and climate conditions in Northwest Germany

Rüth, Matthias; Özgün, Onur; Wachsmuth, Jakob; Gößling‐Reisemann, Stefan

doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.12.025

Cited by 21 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Not only the presented case studies prove its feasibility and productivity but also several other research projects (e.g. Wachsmuth 2015;Ruth et al 2015;Vögele et al 2017). However, the process of adapting the concept in practice is still at an early stage.…”

Section: Outlinesupporting

confidence: 57%

Introduction to the special issue ‘Integrated scenario building in energy transition research’

Poganietz

Weimer-Jehle

2020

Climatic Change

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The anthropogenically induced climate change is a core geopolitical challenge in the twentyfirst century, which will be decisive for the long-term global cohabitation of humans, and economic opportunities as a base for wellbeing (WBGU 2011). The energy sector is responsible for 60-70% of global greenhouse gases (IEA 2015), which sets the transformation of the energy system at the centre of any discussion on how to de-fossilize economic systems and thus minimize the carbon footprint of societies. As climate change is a global challenge, the same is true for changing the way energy systems function. Ways and means to decarbonize the energy supply are the topic of a broad range of discussions at the highest political levels and are also the topic of uncountable scientific articles. Common to most political or scientific contributions is the use of or reference to scenarios (e.g. IEA 2019). Scenarios show development options by revealing important interdependencies and their relevance. However, scenarios do not predict the future, which is often ignored in discussions. Instead, model-based econometric or techno-economic scenarios make an important contribution to science-based policy advice by pointing out alternative futures and their implications. Since past and current political as well as societal developments reveal that the shape of an energy system and its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions are the outcome of multidimensional interactions within civil society, as well as between civil society, politics, technology, and the economy (Geels 2004; Verbong and Loorbach 2012), meaningful transition scenarios require a sound consideration of the interplay between society, technology, and environment.

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Section: Outlinesupporting

confidence: 57%

Introduction to the special issue ‘Integrated scenario building in energy transition research’

Poganietz

Weimer-Jehle

2020

Climatic Change

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“…Section 3.2) was hardly noticed in energy research, so far. Rare exceptions are Hansen et al, applying CIB scenarios to link sectorial energy modeling with national and global developments [51], and Ruth et al, using CIB based 'framing scenarios' (developed by Wachsmuth et al [52]) as a starting point for a climate-driven regional agriculture-energy model analysis [53]. Against this background, it is the purpose of this article to pave the further way for an intensified use of systematically derived 'hybrid scenarios' in energy research.…”

Section: State Of Transfer To Energy Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios

Weimer-Jehle

Buchgeister

Hauser

et al. 2016

Energy

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a b s t r a c tModel-based energy scenarios are a widely used tool for supporting economic and political decision makers. The results of energy modeling and the conclusions deduced therefrom, however, depend on the model input data derived from framework assumptions about future developments in the embedding society, which are deeply uncertain in the long term. The challenge to deal with this 'context uncertainty' in a systematic and comprehensive manner has only recently started to attract intensified attention in energy research; the search for appropriate methods is ongoing. This paper proposes a new concept for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios, which combines familiar environmental modeling approaches with new developments in qualitative scenario methodology, and demonstrates the possible application of the concept in model-based energy scenario construction.

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“…As such, they have investigated the role of guiding visions and foresight, the number and characteristics of actors and arenas involved in the transition process, the course of the institutionalization process, or the development of the energy and material flows over time [8,9,[17][18][19]. A number of studies have developed models for analysing and simulating transition processes towards sustainability [20][21][22]. However, even though there is empirical evidence that the success of a transition depends, amongst others, on the transition pathway itself [23], none of the studies has explicitly analysed the resilience of a regional energy system in a transition process.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Indicator-Based Approach for Analysing the Resilience of Transitions for Energy Regions. Part II: Empirical Application to the Case of Weiz-Gleisdorf, Austria

2018

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In this paper, we apply an indicator-based approach to measure the resilience of energy regions in transition to a case study region in Austria. The indicator-based approach allows to determine the resilience of the transition of regional energy systems towards higher shares of renewables and potentially overall higher sustainability. The indicators are based on two core aspects of resilience, diversity and connectivity. Diversity is thereby operationalized by variety, disparity and balance, whereas connectivity is operationalized by average path length, degree centrality and modularity. In order to get a full picture of the resilience of the energy system at stake throughout time, we apply the measures to four distinct moments, situated in the pre-development, take-off, acceleration and stabilization phase of the transition. By contextually and theoretically embedding the insights in the broader transitions context and empirically applying the indicators to a specific case, we derive insights on (1) how to interpret the results in a regional context and (2) how to further develop the indicator-based approach for future applications.

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Dynamics of energy transitions under changing socioeconomic, technological and climate conditions in Northwest Germany

Cited by 21 publications

References 25 publications

Introduction to the special issue ‘Integrated scenario building in energy transition research’

Introduction to the special issue ‘Integrated scenario building in energy transition research’

Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios

An Indicator-Based Approach for Analysing the Resilience of Transitions for Energy Regions. Part II: Empirical Application to the Case of Weiz-Gleisdorf, Austria

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