Introduction to the special issue ‘Integrated scenario building in energy transition research’

Abstract

The anthropogenically induced climate change is a core geopolitical challenge in the twentyfirst century, which will be decisive for the long-term global cohabitation of humans, and economic opportunities as a base for wellbeing (WBGU 2011). The energy sector is responsible for 60-70% of global greenhouse gases (IEA 2015), which sets the transformation of the energy system at the centre of any discussion on how to de-fossilize economic systems and thus minimize the carbon footprint of societies. As climate change is a global challenge, the same is true for changing the way energy systems function. Ways and means to decarbonize the energy supply are the topic of a broad range of discussions at the highest political levels and are also the topic of uncountable scientific articles. Common to most political or scientific contributions is the use of or reference to scenarios (e.g. IEA 2019). Scenarios show development options by revealing important interdependencies and their relevance. However, scenarios do not predict the future, which is often ignored in discussions. Instead, model-based econometric or techno-economic scenarios make an important contribution to science-based policy advice by pointing out alternative futures and their implications. Since past and current political as well as societal developments reveal that the shape of an energy system and its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions are the outcome of multidimensional interactions within civil society, as well as between civil society, politics, technology, and the economy (Geels 2004; Verbong and Loorbach 2012), meaningful transition scenarios require a sound consideration of the interplay between society, technology, and environment.

Best Practice in Government Use and Development of Long-Term Energy Transition Scenarios

“…This paper aims at formalising best practices in using and developing LTES in the government in the context of the clean energy transition. It seeks to complement the recent literature that is studying energy transition scenarios in the context of sustainability [50], geopolitics [51], societal processes [52], modelling methods [53] and economic impacts [54] by engaging with those who rely on scenario-based results to help navigate the energy transition-i.e., government energy planners. We address three currently unmet objectives in the literature: (i) to showcase examples of successful application of LTES in the government, (ii) to establish scenario best practices to address the energy transition through community-wide efforts and (iii) to inform energy planners on effective use scenario-based analysis.…”