Dynamics of larch bud moth populations: Application of Moran – Ricker models with time lag

Nedorezov, L. V.; Sadykova, Dinara

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.11.003

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…For evaluation purposes, further processes such as the dynamic development of stress needs to be considered. This might be more easy for stress related to air pollution than to insect abundance and development, the latter requiring dynamic gradation models (Nedorezov and Sadykova, 2015). In addition, likely physiological adaptations or increased resource competition of herbivores might render the assumption of a linear stress-response relation invalid, which demands for further model refinements.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Modeling Approach for Estimating Abiotic and Biotic Stress-Induced de novo Emissions of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds From Plants

Grote

Sharma

Ghirardo

et al. 2019

Front. For. Glob. Change

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The emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) is usually thought to depend on species-specific emission capacities that vary with seasonal and phenological conditions. Actual-so called constitutive-emissions are then calculated from prevailing temperature and radiation. However, various abiotic and biotic stressors such as ozone, extreme radiation and temperature conditions, as well as wounding e.g., from insect feeding, can lead to de-novo emissions of stress-induced BVOCs (sBVOCs) that may excel constitutive emissions by more than an order of magnitude. These emissions often have a considerable different compound composition and are short-lived but can prolong under continuous stress for quite some time. Thus, they may easily have a large impact on overall regional BVOC emissions. However, sBVOCs are generally not considered in models since up to date no consistent mechanism has been proposed. This manuscript suggests a new mechanism based on the finding that sBVOCs originate from a handful of biosynthetic pathways which synthesize compounds in the groups of monoterpenes, sesquiterpenes, and green leave volatiles, as well as methyl salicylate, ethanol/acetaldehyde, methanol/formaldehyde, and acetone. Isoprene is also considered but since it is often constitutively emitted, the specific role of stress induction is difficult to determine for this compound. A function is proposed that describes the production of all de-novo sBVOCs sufficiently well and scales with stress intensity. It is hypothesized that the response delay and the form of the function is specific for the production pathway and valid for ozone as well as wounding (herbivory) induced stress. Model parameters are then derived from pooled literature data based on a metaanalysis of suitable induction-response measurements of different plant species. The overall emission amount derives from the intensity and frequency of the stress impulse. We present a number of literature studies that are used to parameterize the new model as well as a selection of evaluations for single-and multiple-stress inductions. Furthermore, coupling and interaction with constitutive emission models as well as limitations and possible further developments are discussed.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Modeling Approach for Estimating Abiotic and Biotic Stress-Induced de novo Emissions of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds From Plants

Grote

Sharma

Ghirardo

et al. 2019

Front. For. Glob. Change

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“…high population density adversely affects the reproduction of the next generation (Prout and McChesney, 1985;Turchin, 1990;Williams and Liebhold, 1995). The most convincing results were obtained for the Ricker (Moran-Ricker) model and its modification with delay (Kendall et al, 1999;Turchin, 2003;Turchin et al, 2003;Bechtol and Kruse, 2009;Sadykova and Nedorezov, 2013;Nedorezov and Sadykova, 2015). In particular, an attempt was made to describe and analyze the dynamics of Zeiraphera diniana Gn.…”

Section: Dynamics Of Populations With Nonoverlapping Generationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Attempts to use one-dimensional discrete-time models to describe and predict the dynamics of certain natural populations were often unproductive: model curves, catching trends in changes in abundance, statistically poorly described the observed dynamics of real populations (Shapiro and Luppov, 1983;Dennis and Taper, 1994;Myers et al, 1999;Frisman et al, 2007Frisman et al, , 2015aNedorezov and Sadykova, 2008;Nedorezov, 2010;Tarasov et al, 2012). In some cases, the model description could be improved by introducing a delay into the equations (Nedorezov, 1986;Turchin, 1990Turchin, , 2003Berryman and Turchin, 2001;Isaev et al, 2001;Nedorezov, 2012;Sadykova and Nedorezov, 2013;Nedorezov and Sadykova, 2015). Delayed regulation occurs in natural populations as a result of interspecific interaction or in cases when a…”

Section: Dynamics Of Populations With Nonoverlapping Generationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mathematical Modeling of Population Dynamics Based on Recurrent Equations: Results and Prospects. Part I

Frisman

Zhdanova

Кулаков

et al. 2021

Biol Bull Russ Acad Sci

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Approaches to modeling population dynamics using discrete-time models are described in this two-part review. The development of the scientific ideas of discrete time models, from the Malthus model to modern population models that take into account many factors affecting the structure and dynamics, is presented. The most important and interesting results of recurrent equation application to biological system analysis obtained by the authors are given. In the first part of this review, the population dynamic effects that result from density-dependent regulation of population, the age and sex structures, and the influence of external factors are considered.

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“…Данная работа посвящена исследованию фазовой мультистабильности и ее влиянию на характер динамики модели Рикера с периодически изменяющимся мальтузианским параметром [22,23]. Следует отметить, что модель Рикера с учетом факторов внешней среды весьма успешно применяется для описания динамики реальных популяций [24][25][26]. Мы изучаем частный случай, когда условия среды обитания популяции изменяются периодически.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Phase Multistability of Dynamics Modes of the Ricker Model with Periodic Malthusian Parameter

Shlufman¹,

Неверова²,

Frisman³

2018

Math.Biol.Bioinf.

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The paper investigates the phase multistability of dynamical modes of the Ricker model with 2-year periodic Malthusian parameter. It is shown that both the variable perturbation and the phase shift of the Malthusian parameter can lead to a phase shift or a change in the dynamic mode observed. The possibility of switches between different dynamic modes is due to multistability, since the model has two different stable 2-cycles. The first stable 2-cycle is the result of transcritical bifurcation and is synchronous to the oscillations of the Malthusian parameter. The second stable 2-cycle arises as a result of the tangent bifurcation and is asynchronous to the oscillations of the Malthusian parameter. This indicates that two-year fluctuations in the population size can be both synchronous and asynchronous to the fluctuations in the environment. The phase shift of the Malthusian parameter causes a phase shift in the stable 4-cycle of the first bifurcation series to one or even three elements of the 4-cycle. The phase shift to two elements of this 4-cycle is possible due to a change in the half-amplitude of the Malthusian parameter oscillation or the variable perturbation. At the same time, the longer period of the cycle, the more phases with their attraction basins it has, and the smaller the threshold values above which shift from the attraction basin to another one occur. As a result, in the case of cycles with long period (for example, 8-cycle) perturbations, that stable cycles with short period are able to "absorb", can cause different phase transitions, which significantly complicates the dynamics of the model trajectory and, as a consequence, the identification of the dynamic mode observed.

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Dynamics of larch bud moth populations: Application of Moran – Ricker models with time lag

Cited by 9 publications

References 31 publications

A New Modeling Approach for Estimating Abiotic and Biotic Stress-Induced de novo Emissions of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds From Plants

A New Modeling Approach for Estimating Abiotic and Biotic Stress-Induced de novo Emissions of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds From Plants

Mathematical Modeling of Population Dynamics Based on Recurrent Equations: Results and Prospects. Part I

Phase Multistability of Dynamics Modes of the Ricker Model with Periodic Malthusian Parameter

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