Dynamics of Miscarriage Among the Female Population of Fertile Age in Ukraine and in Lviv Region in 2014-2021

Timchenko, N.F.; Gutor, Taras

doi:10.25040/aml2022.3-4.072

AML

2022

DOI: 10.25040/aml2022.3-4.072

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Dynamics of Miscarriage Among the Female Population of Fertile Age in Ukraine and in Lviv Region in 2014-2021

N.F. Timchenko

Taras Gutor

Abstract: Aim. The research aims at rationalizing of the epidemiological component in the process of developing a model for preventing miscarriage among the female population of Ukraine. Materials and Methods. A retrospective analysis of the indicators of miscarriage among the female population of Ukraine and Lviv region for the period from 2014 to 2021 was carried out. Statistical data of the Center for Medical Statistics of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine were used, namely Form No. 21 "Report on medical care f… Show more

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2023

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Cited by 4 publications

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Extragenital and infectious factors may provoke miscarriage

Gutor¹,

Тимченко²,

Matsyura³

2023

Ukr.Biochem.J.

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Adverse reproductive outcome before term is a polyetiological pathology associated with demographic crisis. Some adverse outcomes include perinatal and neonatal infant mortality, major morbidity and mortality of children under two years, violation of psychomotor and physical development, cognitive disturbances and disability of children under age five. Finding ways to solve these issues remain a priority. The research involved two female groups. The experimental group included 403 women after the involuntary termination of pregnancy, premature birth or in case of threat of miscarriage; the control group included 402 women with physiological course of pregnancy and parturient with full-term pregnancy. The study required the application of systemic approaches and methods including structural, logical, medical and statistical analyses. The survey revealed more than 20 infectious risk factors and more than 70 factors of extragenital origin. The most significant infectious pathologies included COVID-19 (36.23 ± 2.29% and 14.93 ± 1.78%), herpes type 1 (5.96 ± 1.18% and 1.0 ± 0.50%), toxoplasmosis (4.22 ± 1.0% and 1.0 ± 0.50%) and chlamydial infection (4.22 ± 1.0% 0.50 ± 0.35%) in the experimental and control groups, respectively (P < 0.01). The most significant extragenital pathologies involved autoimmune thyroiditis (8.68 ± 1.40% and 0.75 ± 0.43%), type 1 diabetes mellitus (2.23 ± 0.74% and 0%) and allergic rhinitis/sinusitis (3.97 ± 0.97% and 0.50 ± 0.35%) in the experimental and control groups, respectively (P < 0.01). Obtained results will be used in the development of a personified risk-oriented model for the prevention of preterm pregnancy loss. Keywords: adverse reproductive outcomes before term, extragenital pathology, infectious pathology, risk factors, risk-oriented model

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Extragenital and infectious factors may provoke miscarriage

Gutor¹,

Тимченко²,

Matsyura³

2023

Ukr.Biochem.J.

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Risk-Oriented Prediction of Pregnancy Loss Pathology Based on a Personalized Approach

Timchenko,

Gutor

2023

AML

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The increase in the frequency of pregnancy loss and the negative prognostic trend with the probable development of the demographic crisis in connection with the martial law in Ukraine and the mass migration of the female population provoked by it, requires the search for all possible ways of prevention and prophylactic of this pathology. Aim. Development and scientific substantiation of a risk-oriented model of prevention of pregnancy loss. Material and Methods. In the course of creating a model for determining the probability of the appearance of symptoms of pregnancy loss, we used a step-by-step method of logistic regression with the gradual exclusion of unreliable signs according to the Wald method. Results and Discussion. In the process of sociological research, the importance of 30 risk factors was analyzed, and 14 factors were singled out from among them using the logistic regression method, which, when combined, have a probable impact on the development of pregnancy loss. Namely: emotional strain/stress in everyday life, first ultrasound and biochemical screening, history of herpes type 1, chlamydial infection, COVID-19, tonsillitis, allergic rhinitis/sinusitis, autoimmune thyroiditis, presence of type I diabetes, use of artificial insemination, wine consumption, additional use of folic acid and drugs, marital status, and computer work. Among these 14 factors, three have a preventive effect, while the other 11 increase the risk of developing the pathology of pregnancy loss. This preventive model is reliable (p<0.001) and was transformed into the application "Individual prediction of the occurrence of pregnancy loss pathology" created for the Android platform, which provides 95.5% accuracy of the prediction of the occurrence of pregnancy loss pathology. Conclusions. The personalized preventive model can be applied by general practitioners/family doctors and obstetrician-gynecologists in order to form risk groups among pregnant women and prevent the occurrence of pregnancy loss pathology.

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Epidemiological Analysis and Prognosis of Miscarriage in Ukraine and Lviv Region

Gutor

Timchenko

2023

Clin. and prev. med.

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The aim. Substantiation of the prognostic component in the process of developing the model of prevention of miscarriage among the female population of Ukraine. Materials and methods. A retrospective epidemiological analysis of the miscarriage dynamics among the female population of Ukraine and Lviv region for the period of 2014-2021 was performed, and prognosis of the indicators of this pathology until 2026 was established. The work uses the methods of a systemic approach and structural-logical analysis, medical-statistical analysis , prognostic methodology using exponential smoothing according to the two-parameter Holt method. Results and discussion. Over the analyzed period from 2014 to 2021, an increase in the index of the ratio of the total rate of miscarriage to the total number of pregnancies (cases of miscarriage per 100 pregnancies) from 5.50 in 2014 to 6.22 in 2021 in Ukraine and from 3.57 to 4.72 in Lviv region, respectively, was noted. In order to predict the ratio of miscarriages to the total number of pregnancies we have chosen the exponential smoothing method according to the two-parameter Holt method. In our opinion, this indicator will be the least dependent on the impact of war and COVID-19 pandemic. All other conditions remaining unchanged, the prognosis results predict that in 2026, the ratio of miscarriage to the total number of pregnancies in Ukraine will amount to 6.37 cases of miscarriage per 100 pregnancies, and 5.38 cases of miscarriage per 100 pregnancies in Lviv region. Conclusions. Analysis of the dynamic indicators of the ratio of stillbirths to the total number of pregnancies over the analyzed 8-year period both in Ukraine and in Lviv region showed a trend towards annual growth of this index. A worsening of the demographic situation according to the results of the study, as well as the likely development of a demographic crisis in connection with the state of war in Ukraine and the mass migration of the female population provoked by the war, requires searching for all possible ways to prevent miscarriage and take into account this prognostic-negative trend in the development of preventive programs.

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Dynamics of Miscarriage Among the Female Population of Fertile Age in Ukraine and in Lviv Region in 2014-2021

Cited by 4 publications

References 8 publications

Extragenital and infectious factors may provoke miscarriage

Extragenital and infectious factors may provoke miscarriage

Risk-Oriented Prediction of Pregnancy Loss Pathology Based on a Personalized Approach

Epidemiological Analysis and Prognosis of Miscarriage in Ukraine and Lviv Region

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