Ðåôåðàò Ìåòà. Íàóêîâå îá´ðóíòóâàííÿ ïðî´íîñòè÷íèõ òåíäåíö³é ó ñòàí³ çàõâîðþâàíîñò³ íàñåëåííÿ Óêðà¿íè ãîñòðèì ³íôàðêòîì ì³îêàðäà (òÌ) íà ïåð³îä äî 2030 ðîêó. Ìàòåð³àë ³ ìåòîäè. Âèêîðèñòàí³ ñòàòèñòè÷í³ äàí³ ÌÎÇ Óêðà¿íè çà ïåð³îä 2000-2015 ðîêè, êîòð³ îïðàöüîâàí³ ïðè äîïîìîç³ á³îñòàòèñòè÷íèõ ìåòîä³â äîñë³äaeåííÿ, à ïðîíîçóâàííÿ ïðîâåäåíå ç âèêîðèñòàííÿì ìåòîäó åêñïîíåí-ö³àëüíîãî çãëàäaeóâàííÿ çà ñïîñîáîì Áðàóíà ç çàñòîñóâàííÿì ìåòîä³â åêñòðàïîëÿö³¿, ñòðóêòóðíî-ëî´³÷íîãî àíàë³çó òà äåäóêòèâíîãî îñâ³äîìëåííÿ ³ ïðèíöèï³â ñèñòåìíîãî ï³äõîäó òà ñèñòåìíîãî àíàë³çó.

The aim. Substantiation of the prognostic component in the process of developing the model of prevention of miscarriage among the female population of Ukraine. Materials and methods. A retrospective epidemiological analysis of the miscarriage dynamics among the female population of Ukraine and Lviv region for the period of 2014-2021 was performed, and prognosis of the indicators of this pathology until 2026 was established. The work uses the methods of a systemic approach and structural-logical analysis, medical-statistical analysis , prognostic methodology using exponential smoothing according to the two-parameter Holt method. Results and discussion. Over the analyzed period from 2014 to 2021, an increase in the index of the ratio of the total rate of miscarriage to the total number of pregnancies (cases of miscarriage per 100 pregnancies) from 5.50 in 2014 to 6.22 in 2021 in Ukraine and from 3.57 to 4.72 in Lviv region, respectively, was noted. In order to predict the ratio of miscarriages to the total number of pregnancies we have chosen the exponential smoothing method according to the two-parameter Holt method. In our opinion, this indicator will be the least dependent on the impact of war and COVID-19 pandemic.  All other conditions remaining unchanged, the prognosis results predict that in 2026, the ratio of miscarriage to the total number of pregnancies in Ukraine will amount to 6.37 cases of miscarriage per 100 pregnancies, and 5.38 cases of miscarriage per 100 pregnancies in Lviv region. Conclusions. Analysis of the dynamic indicators of the ratio of stillbirths to the total number of pregnancies over the analyzed 8-year period both in Ukraine and in Lviv region showed a trend towards annual growth of this index. A worsening of the demographic situation according to the results of the study, as well as the likely development of a demographic crisis in connection with the state of war in Ukraine and the mass migration of the female population provoked by the war, requires searching for all possible ways to prevent miscarriage and take into account this prognostic-negative trend in the development of preventive programs.

Aim. The research aims at rationalizing of the epidemiological component in the process of developing a model for preventing miscarriage among the female population of Ukraine. Materials and Methods. A retrospective analysis of the indicators of miscarriage among the female population of Ukraine and Lviv region for the period from 2014 to 2021 was carried out. Statistical data of the Center for Medical Statistics of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine were used, namely Form No. 21 "Report on medical care for pregnant women, women in labor and women giving birth". The study uses the methods of a systemic approach and structural-logical analysis, medical-statistical analysis, namely the calculation of chain (relative to the previous year) indicators of a dynamic series: absolute growth, growth rate and increment rate. Results and Discussion. A decrease in the female population of fertile age by 13.03% in Ukraine and by 5.81% in Lviv region was noted in the analyzed period of 2014-2021, while the number of spontaneous abortions in Ukraine decreased by an average of 3.45% per year, and grew in Lviv region in 2015, 2018, 2019 and 2020 by 5.72%, 6.87%, 19.29% and 6.59%, respectively. The rates of spontaneous abortions per 1,000 women of fertile age in Lviv region were twice as low as in Ukraine. Over the analyzed 8-year period, the share of premature children among all live births increased from 4.68% to 5.68% in Ukraine, and from 4.18% to 5.65% in Lviv region, respectively; these indicators in Lviv region were smaller compared to the indicators in Ukraine. The share of premature babies among stillbirths averaged 63.07% in Ukraine and 67.69% in Lviv region, had a growing trend, and the indicators in Lviv region were higher every year compared to the indicators in Ukraine. The ratio of the total rate of miscarriage to the total number of pregnancies (cases of miscarriage per 100 pregnancies) increased from 5.50 in 2014 to 6.22 in 2021 in Ukraine and from 3.57 to 4.72 in Lviv region respectively. Conclusions. There was a trend of annual increase in the index of the ratio of the total miscarriage rate to the total number of pregnancies, the share of prematures from the total number of live births and the share of premature births from the number of stillbirths in the analyzed 8-year period, both in Ukraine and in Lviv region. The analyzed indicators of the share of premature newborns from the total number of live births in Lviv region were lower every year, and the share of newborns from the total number of stillbirths was higher compared to the average annual indicators in Ukraine. The dynamics of spontaneous abortions showed a clear trend towards an annual decrease in Ukraine and their increase in 2015, 2018-2020 in Lviv region. The rate of spontaneous abortions among women of fertile age in Lviv region from 2014 to 2021 was annually half as low compared to the average annual levels of this indicator in Ukraine.