Dynamics of tax revenues in the budget of Ukraine and their forecast during the crisis period

The purpose of the article is to determine the priority methods of forecasting the number of tax revenues from excise taxation as a source of formation of budgetary resources, taking into account the patterns of their dynamics. A methodical approach of determining the general patterns of the dynamics of the number of tax revenues from the collection of excise taxes to the budget of Ukraine has been developed. On the basis of this approach, it was established that the formalized description of the patterns of dynamics of tax revenues from the collection of excise taxes to the budget of Ukraine has significant differences depending on the scale of measurements. The usage of time series to forecast the number of tax revenues from the collection of excise taxes is also not appropriate due to their anti-persistence and fractal similarity. The study of the uncertainty of the dynamics of tax revenues from the collection of excise taxes makes it possible to predict the onset of periods of crisis reduction, with high convergence of results, regardless of the scale of measurement.Parametric forecasting of the number of tax revenues from the excise tax to the budget of Ukraine is carried out by taking into account the inertia of the dynamics of factors of influence, confirmation of causality between factors of influence, factors of influence and forecast indicators, determination of lag of causality, research of persistence of dynamics of the factors of influence. Due to the anti-persistence of the dynamics of some of the factors of influence, the forecasting of the number of tax revenues from the collection of excise tax was carried out using a set of parametric and scenario models. The results of forecasting the number of tax revenues from the excise tax on goods produced in Ukraine were lower than the official forecast by 10-12%. The results of forecasting the number of tax revenues from the collection of excise tax on goods imported to the territory of Ukraine coincided with the official forecast.

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Paradigm Transformation of the Economic Crises Modeling

Khalatur¹,

Honcharenko²,

Karamushka³

et al. 2022

ФКДПТП

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In order to develop reasonable measures to counteract the destructive consequences of economic crises or to prevent them, it is important to build reasonable and adequate models of the emergence and course of crisis processes. The formal compliance of existing models with socio-economic processes during the crisis is often incomplete or cannot be adapted to other conditions, economies, and markets. Therefore, the article is devoted to the expediency and possibility of transformation of the existing paradigm of modeling economic crises.Modeling the interdependence of two basic indicators, which characterize the crisis in the economic development of European countries (GDP growth rates and employment growth rates), refuted the possibility of their mutual determination. The interdependence of the dynamics of GDP growth rates and employment growth rates for all studied objects without a shift in time, determined for the period 1996-2020 with a high level of reliability, is of the same type and made it possible to determine the range of their mutual changes. According to this range and the parameters of the codependencies of GDP growth rates and employment growth rates, eight clusters of countries were determined by the method of finding concentrations. The emergence of crisis processes coincides with specific parameters of the interdependent dynamics of GDP growth rates and employment growth rates but is not related to the internal division of Eurozone countries into clusters.The obtained results gave reason to put forward an alternative paradigm for modeling crisis processes, according to which economic crises arise as a result of the impact of random destructive events on systemic coincidences of potential periods of shifts in the contingent regularities of partial self-similar dynamics of economic processes. Within this paradigm, modeling of economic crises and forecasting their occurrence will be based on the study of self-similarity, dissipativeness and contingency of the dynamics of economic processes.

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Dynamics of tax revenues in the budget of Ukraine and their forecast during the crisis period

Cited by 3 publications

References 17 publications

Administrative Penalties for Customs Infringements in Ukraine: Wandering Sideways

Administrative Penalties for Customs Infringements in Ukraine: Wandering Sideways

Research of Dynamics and Forecasting the Budget Incomes From Excise Taxation: The Ukraine Experience

Paradigm Transformation of the Economic Crises Modeling

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