Dynamics of the perfect storms: La Niña and Australia’s extreme rainfall and floods of 1974 and 2011

Whelan, Jennifer; Frederiksen, Jørgen S.

doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3312-3

Cited by 12 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 48 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Fauchereau et al (2016) suggested that the MJO directly impacts regional circulation and climate in the New Zealand region, potentially through extratropical Rossby wave response to tropical diabatic heating. Whelan and Frederiksen (2017) found that tropical-extratropical interactions associated with the MJO contributed to the extreme rainfall and flooding in northern Australia during January 1974 and January 2011.…”

Section: Mjo Influences On the Extratropical Circulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fifty Years of Research on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation: Recent Progress, Challenges, and Perspectives

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Since its discovery in the early 1970s, the crucial role of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the global hydrological cycle and its tremendous influence on high‐impact climate and weather extremes have been well recognized. The MJO also serves as a primary source of predictability for global Earth system variability on subseasonal time scales. The MJO remains poorly represented in our state‐of‐the‐art climate and weather forecasting models, however. Moreover, despite the advances made in recent decades, theories for the MJO still disagree at a fundamental level. The problems of understanding and modeling the MJO have attracted significant interest from the research community. As a part of the AGU's Centennial collection, this article provides a review of recent progress, particularly over the last decade, in observational, modeling, and theoretical study of the MJO. A brief outlook for near‐future MJO research directions is also provided.

show abstract

Section: Mjo Influences On the Extratropical Circulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fifty Years of Research on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation: Recent Progress, Challenges, and Perspectives

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Recently, Whelan and Frederiksen () examined the role of tropical‐extratropical interactions on the intraseasonal time scale in the extreme rainfall and flooding over Australia during the 1974 and 2011 La Niña events. On the basis of observational analyses of OLR and model simulations, they found that the major extreme rainfall over northern Australia and related flooding during January 1974 and 2011 were associated with rapid growth of the MJO and the collision, or constructive interference, with Kelvin waves.…”

Section: Theory and Mechanisms Of Tropical‐extratropical Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review of Tropical‐Extratropical Teleconnections on Intraseasonal Time Scales

Stan

Straus

Frederiksen

et al. 2017

Reviews of Geophysics

Self Cite

267

214

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The interactions and teleconnections between the tropical and midlatitude regions on intraseasonal time scales are an important modulator of tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies and their associated weather patterns. These interactions arise due to the impact of the tropics on the extratropics, the impact of the midlatitudes on the tropics, and two‐way interactions between the regions. Observational evidence, as well as theoretical studies with models of complexity ranging from the linear barotropic framework to intricate Earth system models, suggest the involvement of a myriad of processes and mechanisms in generating and maintaining these interconnections. At this stage, our understanding of these teleconnections is primarily a collection of concepts; a comprehensive theoretical framework has yet to be established. These intraseasonal teleconnections are increasingly recognized as an untapped source of potential subseasonal predictability. However, the complexity and diversity of mechanisms associated with these teleconnections, along with the lack of a conceptual framework to relate them, prevent this potential predictability from being translated into realized forecast skill. This review synthesizes our progress in understanding the observed characteristics of intraseasonal tropical‐extratropical interactions and their associated mechanisms, identifies the significant gaps in this understanding, and recommends new research endeavors to address the remaining challenges.

show abstract

“…When compared with observations, 20CRv2 data have been shown to reproduce the variability of precipitation rates (e.g., Dolinar et al, ) while also being used in regional hydrologic studies. For example, Whelan and Frederiksen () utilized 20CRv2 data to examine the role of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in Australian flooding during La Niña events. Although alternative reanalysis data products exist, e.g., Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis (Kobayashi et al, ), they do not provide uncertainty estimates and would hinder the proper evaluation of how that uncertainty propagates from the reanalysis to the simulated flooded area and volume.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Atmospheric Reanalysis Data Sets Be Used to Reproduce Flooding Over Large Scales?

Andreadis

Schumann

Stampoulis³

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Floods are costly to global economies and can be exceptionally lethal. The ability to produce consistent flood hazard maps over large areas could provide a significant contribution to reducing such losses, as the lack of knowledge concerning flood risk is a major factor in the transformation of river floods into flood disasters. In order to accurately reproduce flooding in river channels and floodplains, high spatial resolution hydrodynamic models are needed. Despite being computationally expensive, recent advances have made their continental to global implementation feasible, although inputs for long‐term simulations may require the use of reanalysis meteorological products especially in data‐poor regions. We employ a coupled hydrologic/hydrodynamic model cascade forced by the 20CRv2 reanalysis data set and evaluate its ability to reproduce flood inundation area and volume for Australia during the 1973–2012 period. Ensemble simulations using the reanalysis data were performed to account for uncertainty in the meteorology and compared with a validated benchmark simulation. Results show that the reanalysis ensemble capture the inundated areas and volumes relatively well, with correlations for the ensemble mean of 0.82 and 0.85 for area and volume, respectively, although the meteorological ensemble spread propagates in large uncertainty of the simulated flood characteristics.

show abstract

Dynamics of the perfect storms: La Niña and Australia’s extreme rainfall and floods of 1974 and 2011

Cited by 12 publications

References 48 publications

Fifty Years of Research on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation: Recent Progress, Challenges, and Perspectives

Fifty Years of Research on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation: Recent Progress, Challenges, and Perspectives

Review of Tropical‐Extratropical Teleconnections on Intraseasonal Time Scales

Can Atmospheric Reanalysis Data Sets Be Used to Reproduce Flooding Over Large Scales?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About