Early 21st‐Century Drought in Mexico

Stahle, David W.; Cook, Edward R.; Díaz, José Villanueva; Fye, Falko K.; Burnette, Dorian J.; Griffin, Daniel; Acuña-Soto, Rodolfo; Seager, Richard; Heim, Richard R.

doi:10.1029/2009eo110001

Cited by 83 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Drought conditions, especially in the cool season, have generally dominated over many parts of southwestern North America since at least 1999 (4, 61) (SI Text). Whereas in some parts of the Southwest, and by some measures, the recent drought has not (yet) been the most severe drought in the instrumental period (5,61,62), it is notable for warm temperatures (37,61,63) (Fig. 1).…”

Section: Medieval Drought and Temperatures In Southwestern North Americamentioning

confidence: 99%

A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America

Woodhouse

Meko

MacDonald

et al. 2010

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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342

218

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A key feature of anticipated 21st century droughts in Southwest North America is the concurrence of elevated temperatures and increased aridity. Instrumental records and paleoclimatic evidence for past prolonged drought in the Southwest that coincide with elevated temperatures can be assessed to provide insights on temperature-drought relations and to develop worst-case scenarios for the future. In particular, during the medieval period, ∼AD 900-1300, the Northern Hemisphere experienced temperatures warmer than all but the most recent decades. Paleoclimatic and model data indicate increased temperatures in western North America of approximately 1°C over the long-term mean. This was a period of extensive and persistent aridity over western North America. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests drought in the mid-12th century far exceeded the severity, duration, and extent of subsequent droughts. The driest decade of this drought was anomalously warm, though not as warm as the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The convergence of prolonged warming and arid conditions suggests the mid-12th century may serve as a conservative analogue for severe droughts that might occur in the future. The severity, extent, and persistence of the 12th century drought that occurred under natural climate variability, have important implications for water resource management. The causes of past and future drought will not be identical but warm droughts, inferred from paleoclimatic records, demonstrate the plausibility of extensive, severe droughts, provide a long-term perspective on the ongoing drought conditions in the Southwest, and suggest the need for regional sustainability planning for the future.climate change | water resources | paleoclimatology | medieval period C limate-change projections clearly indicate what observations already suggest: Temperatures everywhere will be warmer in the future due to anthropogenic activities. General circulation models (GCMs) project continued warming, with annual temperatures 3-5°C above current levels by the end of the century (1). As previous articles in this Special Feature have discussed, warming temperatures, even without reductions in precipitation, will have far-reaching impacts on hydrologic sustainability in the Southwest. Twenty-first century droughts will occur under warmer temperatures with greater rates of evapotranspiration than occurred during the major droughts of the 20th century. Warming may also directly and indirectly increase the propensity for droughts in the Southwest (2-4). However, major 20th century droughts pale in comparison to droughts documented in paleoclimatic records over the past two millennia (5). Thus, warm droughts of the prehistoric past might provide evidence useful in understanding the current climatological changes, and for providing scenarios for worst-case droughts of the future and evidence of hydroclimatic responses in the Southwest to warmer climatic conditions. This paper examines recent temperature-drought relations and analyzes paleoclimatic data docum...

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Section: Medieval Drought and Temperatures In Southwestern North Americamentioning

confidence: 99%

A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America

Woodhouse

Meko

MacDonald

et al. 2010

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Self Cite

342

218

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“…Prolonged droughts has been reported for these years; for example, a severe dry period around the year 1950 has been documented in North México (Díaz, Therrell, Stahle, & Cleaveland, 2002) affecting the south of United States and that for middle of the 90´s has also been detected in Taxodium mucronatum (Ten.) trees in Central Mexico (Stahle et al, 2009;Stahle et al, 2011).…”

Section: Tendencias De Crecimiento De áRbolesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Series de incremento del área basal en árboles dominantes de Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco muestran periodicidad de acuerdo con patrones climáticos globales

Castruita-Esparza¹,

Correa-Díaz²,

Gómez-Guerrero³

et al. 2016

Rev Cha Se Cie For y del Amb

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Basal area increment series of dominant trees oftrunk section allow the analysis of tree growth trajectories. In this study, we used direct measurements of basal area increment (BAI) to explain biological periodicity and forecast basal area growth of Douglas-fir growing in Western Mexico. To remove the age effect on tree growth we also ran the analysis in terms of cambial age. Results showed significant (P < 0.05) correlation between BAI and precipitation from January to July. We found periodicities in tree growth of 7, 21, 27 and 60 years.However, the 60-year period, was determinant to build an ARIMA model (0,1,1), to forecast BAI for the next decades. Tree growth projections suggest reduced BAI in mature dominant trees for the next decades. Decreased tree-growth is an unexpected result, as BAI in dominant trees remains constant up to the biological age. Our finding is concurrent with a general decrement in tree growth in other forests of the world due to water stress, which suggests that the future climatic variability may worsen health conditions of Douglas-fir forests in North Mexico. ResumenL as especies forestales como Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco son sensibles al clima y muestran anillos de crecimiento claramente definidos. La selección cuidadosa de árboles dominantes con fuste circular permite el análisis de tendencias de crecimiento arbóreo. En este estudio se utilizaron mediciones directas del incremento del área basal (IAB) para explicar las periodicidades biológicas y elaborar predicciones del crecimiento en el abeto Douglas-fir que crece en el oeste de México. Para eliminar el efecto de la edad en el crecimiento de los árboles se hizo un análisis en términos de la edad del cámbium. Los resultados mostraron correlación significativa (P < 0.05) entre IAB y la precipitación de enero a julio. Además, se encontraron periodicidades de 7, 21, 27 y 60 años en el crecimiento de los árboles; el periodo de 60 años fue determinante para la construcción de un modelo ARIMA (0,1,1) para realizar predicciones del IAB en las próximas décadas. Las proyecciones del crecimiento proponen una reducción del IAB en árboles maduros dominantes en las próximas décadas. Dicha reducción es un resultado inesperado, debido a que el IAB en árboles dominantes permanece constante hasta una edad biológica de senescencia. Los resultados concuerdan con una tendencia general de reducción en el crecimiento en otros bosques del mundo debido a estrés hídrico, lo cual sugiere que la variabilidad climática futura puede empeorar la condición de salud del abeto Douglas-fir de los bosques del norte de México.Received: October 21, 2015 / Accepted: July 20, 2016. Palabras clave:Dendrocronología, anillos de crecimiento, productividad forestal, bosques templados, análisis de series de tiempo.

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“…Moreover, in the northwestern portion of the N-domain (known as the monsoon region, Higgins et al, 2003), it is known that winter precipitation is in phase with the PDO (Brito-Castillo et al, 2002;Pavia et al, 2006). Stahle et al (2009) propose that the recent drought (or the 2000s drought) that has affected the N and C domains (Figures 6a, b, e, f, i & j), is associated with a downward trend in precipitation projected for the regions (Seager et al, 2007), based on anthropogenic global warming.…”

Section: Regionalizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Pattern of Trends in Long-Term Precipitation and Stream Flow Observations: Singularities in a Changing Climate in Mexico

Castillo¹

2012

Greenhouse Gases - Emission, Measurement and Management

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Early 21st‐Century Drought in Mexico

Cited by 83 publications

References 9 publications

A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America

A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America

Series de incremento del área basal en árboles dominantes de Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco muestran periodicidad de acuerdo con patrones climáticos globales

Regional Pattern of Trends in Long-Term Precipitation and Stream Flow Observations: Singularities in a Changing Climate in Mexico

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