Early detection, warnings, weak signals and seeds of change: A turbulent domain of futures studies

Rossel, P.

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2011.10.005

Cited by 74 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Still, we cannot know if our interpretations are correct or useful to the water services sector. Furthermore, we cannot rule out false positives (discovering later on that the evidence was misleading) and false negatives (being right but on false grounds) even in hindsight [5].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Rossel criticises existing literature on weak signals for Bneutralisingŵ eak signals, Bas if they were objects or features in their own right, waiting to be discovered, instead of considering them as the expression of the paradigmatic capacity of the analyst to organise perception and interpretation in a certain way^ [11]. Following the subjective view, interpretation of weak signals depends on the context and is situated [4,5]. Thus, same signal can in one case be interpreted as weak and in another as strong.…”

Section: Weak Signalsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The potential of wild cards and especially weak signals in identifying possible changes in the future that could jeopardise or promote a system's existence have been eagerly discussed and scrutinised [2][3][4][5][6][7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Weak signals and wild cards in water and sanitation services – exploring an approach for water utilities

Takala

Heino

2017

Eur J Futures Res

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Weak signals and wild cards are used to scan the environment and make systems more sensitive to emerging changes. In this paper, the applicability of weak signals and wild cards is experimented in a case of a highly reliable and conservative sector, water and sanitation services. The aim is to explore an approach suitable for water utilities. The paper discusses different theoretical and methodological approaches to weak signals and wild cards, and reflects these in relation to the chosen approach. It is argued that the process of weak signals and wild cards can serve as a communication and reflection exercise for an organisation like a water utility. Furthermore, incorporating weak signals and wild cards can be an essential part in futures thinking, challenge prevailing mental models, and make systems more open to sense and learn from their environment. It is recommended for water utilities to apply a loose approach on weak signals and wild cards and embed it as a part of their organisational culture. However, it should be remembered that the approach should always be chosen to match the overall objectives and context.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Weak Signalsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Weak signals and wild cards in water and sanitation services – exploring an approach for water utilities

Takala

Heino

2017

Eur J Futures Res

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“…If they are properly identified, they can be used to discover latent processes, potential discontinuities (see below) and to give hints as to the approach of wild cards or black swans [28,31,64]. From this point of view, they are of utmost practical advantage as early warning signals [65].…”

Section: Discontinuities and Surprises In A World Of Complexitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Surprise as the new normal – implications for energy security

et al. 2017

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We are living in a world of increasing interconnectedness through digitalisation and globalisation, exacerbating environmental conditions, severe economic challenges, uneven distribution of wealth, and geopolitical crises. The world is a complex system and the rapid change among its sub-systems builds up pressure for any efforts to anticipate change and shape the processes of transformation. Surprise is an intrinsic aspect of change, in particular when it takes place at an accelerating pace with high degrees of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity (VUCA) -or within the condition of post-normality as described by Ziauddin Sardar. Emerging technologies such as AI and renewable energy systems add to the complexity of societies, and thus to the world of VUCA and post-normality. In foresight horizon scanning has much focused on the probable or even predictable -surprise-free developments. More emphasis should be paid on systematic anticipation of wild cards and black swans, and on the analysis of weak signals. Foresight should also focus on discontinuities -broader phenomena and developments instead of single events. Energy is a complex issue. Without energy there is no life, neither biological nor economic. Taking into account the huge ecological and social costs of the present energy system, the need for a new emission-free, cost-effective, and democratised energy system is obvious. An energy transformation to reach 100% renewable energy is envisioned in four transformational neo-carbon energy scenarios. Energy is increasingly a societal and even cultural issue -above all a security issue. As regards energy security, various sudden events and surprises could play a major role. New energy systems themselves, with other new technologies, nudge the world into unknown, discontinuous directions. Therefore, we probe the resilience, anti-fragility and discontinuity of these transformational, societal energy scenarios. The results of a futures clinique where the scenarios were tested are presented. Implications of surprises for energy security, as the world increasingly seeks to move towards a renewable energy based society, are explored.

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“…Identificar em quais processos os resultados da prospecção podem ser aplicados Forma de avaliar se os resultados são efetivamente utilizados nos processos de análise Metodologias para suporte à tomada de decisão a partir de estudos prospectivos Recomendações sobre cuidados e abordagens prescritíveis para a boa prática da prospecção Dator (2002aDator ( , 2002b, Coates et al , 2001, Godet (1994, Godet e Roubelat (1996), Gordon (1994), Hirsch et al (2013), Hogarth e Makridakis (1981), Kaivo-Oja et al (2004), Kuosa (2011), Lempert e Groves (2010), Mentzler e Kahn (1995), Miller e Waller (2013), Roney (2010), Rossel (2012), Schwartz (2003), Schwartz (1996), Schwarz (2013), Stacey (1991), Vecchiato (2012) Markley (2011), Milliken (1987, Nehme et al (2012), Ramirez et al (2010), Ringland (2006), Roney (2010), Rossel( 2012), Schwarz (2008), Schwartz (2003), Simon (1997), Walsh (2005) Uso de bases de dados acadêmicas Pesquisa bibliográfica Subsídio ao processo de análise dos dados bibliométricos aplicados na tese Archambault et al (2009), Bourgeois (2014, Leydesdorff e Vaughan (2006) …”

Section: Sumário Dos Conceitos Fundamentais Da Teseunclassified

Prospecção do futuro nas empresas: uma proposta de modelo para integração entre o estudo do futuro e a estratégia empresarial

Yoshida¹

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Early detection, warnings, weak signals and seeds of change: A turbulent domain of futures studies

Cited by 74 publications

References 26 publications

Weak signals and wild cards in water and sanitation services – exploring an approach for water utilities

Weak signals and wild cards in water and sanitation services – exploring an approach for water utilities

Surprise as the new normal – implications for energy security

Prospecção do futuro nas empresas: uma proposta de modelo para integração entre o estudo do futuro e a estratégia empresarial

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