Early growing season weather variation, expectation formation and agricultural land allocation decisions in Ethiopia

Abstract

There are pertinent reasons to be concerned about the effects of climate change on the agriculture sector. As climate predictions show warmer and more variable futures, an increasing number of studies explore the socioeconomic implications of a warmer climate, including the effects on agriculture under different scenarios (Costinot et al., 2016;Hsiang et al., 2017;Jones & Thornton, 2003;Schlenker & Roberts, 2009). Schlenker and Roberts (2009) showed, for example, that even the slowest warming scenario could reduce crop yield by up to 46%. Studies also show that climate change disproportionately hits the poorest segments of the population of

Gender, rainfall endowment, and farmers’ heterogeneity in wheat trait preferences in Ethiopia

“…Likewise, about 86 % of female respondents in rainfall-deficit areas and 72 % in rainfall-surplus areas valued good adaptation. Recent studies indicate that rural livelihoods in Ethiopia are highly susceptible to weather variability ( Ahmed et al, 2022 ), and low rainfall is perceived as a significant challenge to crop production in the country. Agricultural outputs during lower-rainfall seasons are estimated to be nearly half those during higher-rainfall seasons ( Kassie et al, 2013 ).…”

“…Overall, these rainfall shock results emphasize the significance of weather-related variables in the design of gendered improved seed varieties. The existing literature also highlights how such weather conditions impact the varietal adoption and welfare of households ( Ahmed et al, 2022 , Amare et al, 2018 , Marenya et al, 2020 ).…”

“…In Ethiopia, Marenya et al (2020) illustrate the heterogeneous adoption and impacts of sustainable agricultural intensification technologies in rainfall-surplus and rainfall-deficit plots. Studies have also examined the role of weather shocks on land-allocation decisions ( Ahmed et al, 2022 , He and Chen, 2022 , Mu et al, 2018 ). Although these studies provide pertinent information to the literature about the role of weather-related shocks on many important aspects, to the best of our knowledge, no study has successfully tested the hypothesis that rainfall endowment differences (i.e., between households that receive a high amount and those that receive a low amount of rainfall) affect a rural household’s crop trait preferences.…”

Assessing systematic biases in farmers’ local weather change perceptions

“…For further details on the construction of GDs see SM, section S2 andArora et al (2020).11 Ahmed et al (2022) andTack et al (2015) documented dissimilar impacts of intra-seasonal temperatures on farmland use decisions in Ethiopia and crop yields in the U.S., respectively. 12 "High" precipitation threshold of 15mm exceeded the 95th percentile in daily precipitation data during2004-2014.…”