Early Indian Summer Monsoon Onset Driven by Low Soil Moisture in the Iranian Desert

Moon, Songchun; Ha, Kyung‐Ja

doi:10.1029/2019gl084520

Cited by 21 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…These climatological onset and retreat dates are quite sensible compared to previous studies. The present index is well matched with other definitions of monsoon onset and retreat (Table S2, Moon & Ha, 2019). Since most of the models tend to underestimate the precipitation amounts over Asia, the onset criteria for model projection is modulated from 5 to 3.5 mm/day, which is the mean difference between the reanalysis data and model outputs.…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 82%

Future Changes of Summer Monsoon Characteristics and Evaporative Demand Over Asia in CMIP6 Simulations

Moon

Timmermann

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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111

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Future greenhouse warming is expected to influence the characteristics of global monsoon systems. However, large regional uncertainties still remain. Here we use 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to determine how the length of the summer rainy season and precipitation extremes over the Asian summer monsoon domain will change in response to greenhouse warming. Over East Asia the models simulate on average on the earlier onset and later retreat; whereas over India, the retreat will occur later. The model simulations also show an intensification of extreme rainfall events, as well as an increase of seasonal drought conditions. These results demonstrate the high volatility of the Asian summer monsoon systems and further highlight the need for improved water management strategies in this densely populated part of the world.Plain Language Summary Future climate change is expected to influence the characteristics of the global monsoon system. However, large regional uncertainties still remain. Using 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models, we determine the impact of greenhouse warming on the length of the summer rainy season and precipitation extremes over the Asian subregional monsoon domains (East Asia, western North Pacific, India, and Indo-China Peninsula). Over East Asia the models simulate on average an earlier inception and a later termination of the summer rainy season, whereas over India, the termination will occur later. The model simulations also show an intensification of extreme rainfall events, as well as an increase of seasonal drought conditions. Our results demonstrate the high volatility of the Asian summer monsoon system and further highlight the need for improved water management strategies in this densely populated part of the world.

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 82%

Future Changes of Summer Monsoon Characteristics and Evaporative Demand Over Asia in CMIP6 Simulations

Moon

Timmermann

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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111

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“…A previous study showed that the South Asian monsoon will carry 5% more rainfall under the RCP 4.5 warming scenario 20 . Here, we divided the South Asian monsoon into IND and Indo-China Peninsula monsoon (ICP) to identify their respective regional characteristics, because the starting date and occurrence mechanism of these two monsoons are different from each other 3,11,21 . The percentage change in precipitation per one-degree Celsius warming in the long term SSP5-8.5 scenario is higher over IND (+6 %) than over ICP (+3.6 %).…”

Section: Changes In Summer Precipitation Under a Warmer Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in monsoon duration and precipitation using CMIP6

Moon

2020

npj Clim Atmos Sci

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Future change in summertime rainfall under a warmer climate will impact the lives of more than two-thirds of the world’s population. However, the future changes in the duration of the rainy season affected by regional characteristics are not yet entirely understood. We try to understand changes in the length of the rainy season as well as the amounts of the future summertime precipitation, and the related processes over regional monsoon domains using phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archive. Projections reveal extensions of the rainy season over the most of monsoon domains, except over the American monsoon. Enhancing the precipitation in the future climate has various increasing rates depending on the subregional monsoon, and it is mainly affected by changes in thermodynamic factors. This study promotes awareness for the risk of unforeseen future situations by showing regional changes in precipitation according to future scenarios.

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“…This signifies that a deep high-pressure anomaly governs the eastern TP and facilities higher SATs over the eastern TP during summer, and vice versa. [24][25][26][27], we first analyze the possible contribution of preceding SM anomalies to the summer SAT anomalies over the eastern TP. Figure 3a presents the correlation between the summer eastern TP SAT index and SM during the preceding April.…”

Section: Variability Of Summer Sats Over the Tp And Associated Atmospheric Circulation Anomaliesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to the SSTA signals, land thermal condition-related signals have attracted attention in recent years. Generally, soil moisture (SM) has a good persistence/memory from several weeks to months and is therefore considered as an important precursory signal for climate prediction in some areas [24][25][26][27]. For instance, the spring SM anomaly in the TP has a time-lagged effect on the East Asian monsoon during early summer [28].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precursory Signals (SST and Soil Moisture) of Summer Surface Temperature Anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau

et al. 2021

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Understanding the variability of surface air temperature (SAT) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its precursory signals is of great benefit to climate change adaptation and socioeconomic development. This study explores the precursory signals of summer SATs over the TP in oceanic and land boundary conditions. The results show that the summer eastern TP SAT is significantly correlated with three precursors in April: the high-latitude North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), the northern Indian Ocean SST, and the Indian soil moisture (SM). The April SST anomalies (SSTAs) in the high-latitude North Atlantic can exert a cross-season impact on the summer SAT over the TP through two processes. The SSTAs in the high-latitude North Atlantic maintain from April to summer and modulate atmospheric circulation over the eastern TP through exciting a downstream wave train during summer, and finally modulate the summer SAT over the eastern TP. In addition to the above process, the April SSTAs in the high-latitude North Atlantic may remotely regulate simultaneous SM in the Indian subcontinent through stimulating a downstream wave train pattern. Through a persistent SM–precipitation interaction, the April Indian SM anomaly can affect the local precipitation and associated condensation heating anomalies during the ensuing summer, which forces an anomalous cyclone–anticyclone pattern around the TP and accordingly affects the summer SAT over the eastern TP. Additionally, the SSTAs in the northern Indian Ocean can persist from April to summer and adjust the intensity and location of the western North Pacific subtropical high through the Kelvin-wave-induced Ekman divergence during summer, eventually affecting the summer eastern TP SAT. The three precursory signals, which synergistically contribute to the variability of the summer eastern TP SAT, can be applied in predicting the summer SAT over the eastern TP.

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Early Indian Summer Monsoon Onset Driven by Low Soil Moisture in the Iranian Desert

Cited by 21 publications

References 52 publications

Future Changes of Summer Monsoon Characteristics and Evaporative Demand Over Asia in CMIP6 Simulations

Future Changes of Summer Monsoon Characteristics and Evaporative Demand Over Asia in CMIP6 Simulations

Future changes in monsoon duration and precipitation using CMIP6

Precursory Signals (SST and Soil Moisture) of Summer Surface Temperature Anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau

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