Early phylogenetic estimate of the effective reproduction number of SARS‐CoV‐2

Lai, Alessia; Bergna, Annalisa; Acciarri, Carla; Galli, Massimo; Zehender, Gianguglielmo

doi:10.1002/jmv.25723

Cited by 187 publications

(212 citation statements)

References 19 publications

(31 reference statements)

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“…Our estimates of the reproduction number can be compared with earlier estimates reported for the epidemic in China where the estimates of R lie in the range 2-7.1 (1,(23)(24)(25)(26)(27)(28)(29). Moreover, the mean R reached values as high as ~11 for the outbreak that unfolded aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January-February 2020 (30 Singapore and all Chinese provinces except Hubei (31,32).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Transmission potential of COVID-19 in South Korea

Shim

Tariq

Choi

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Since the first identified individual of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection on Jan 20, 2020in South Korea, the number of confirmed cases rapidly increased. As of Feb 26, 2020, 1,261 cases of COVID-19 including 12 deaths were confirmed in South Korea. Using the incidence data of COVID-19, we estimate the reproduction number at 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4-1.6), which indicates sustained transmission and support the implementation of social distancing measures to rapidly control the outbreak.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Transmission potential of COVID-19 in South Korea

Shim

Tariq

Choi

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…The basic reproduction number (R 0 ) is the average number of secondary cases that arises when one primary case is introduced into an uninfected population [8]. It is called the effective reproduction number, (R e f f ) when this value changes during an epidemic [9]. Travel has remained a major source of concern for the current COVID-19 pandemic; therefore, early transmissibility of the disease in Nigeria was quantified using a sequential Bayesian method, adjusting for disease importation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria

Adegboye

Adekunle

Gayawan

2020

IJERPH

107

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On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of a novel coronavirus disease in China that was later named COVID-19. On 11 March 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. The first instance of the virus in Nigeria was documented on 27 February 2020. This study provides a preliminary epidemiological analysis of the first 45 days of COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria. We estimated the early transmissibility via time-varying reproduction number based on the Bayesian method that incorporates uncertainty in the distribution of serial interval (time interval between symptoms onset in an infected individual and the infector), and adjusted for disease importation. By 11 April 2020, 318 confirmed cases and 10 deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in Nigeria. At day 45, the exponential growth rate was 0.07 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.05-0.10) with a doubling time of 9.84 days (95% CI: 7.28-15.18). Separately for imported cases (travel-related) and local cases, the doubling time was 12.88 days and 2.86 days, respectively. Furthermore, we estimated the reproduction number for each day of the outbreak using a three-weekly window while adjusting for imported cases. The estimated reproduction number was 4.98 (95% CrI: 2.65-8.41) at day 22 (19 March 2020), peaking at 5.61 (95% credible interval (CrI): 3.83-7.88) at day 25 (22 March 2020). The median reproduction number over the study period was 2.71 and the latest value on 11 April 2020, was 1.42 (95% CrI: 1.26-1.58). These 45-day estimates suggested that cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria have been remarkably lower than expected and the preparedness to detect needs to be shifted to stop local transmission.

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“…Indeed, transmission of HCoVs through environmental contamination has been reported in healthcare settings [2]. Understanding which are the potentially contaminated surfaces in a healthcare environment is crucial to protect healthcare workers from this virus showing an unprecedented exponential trend with a doubling time of 3.6-4.1 days [3]. In this regard, studies suggest that surfaces and suspensions can carry HCoVs, increasing the risk of contact transmission that could lead to hospital acquired HCoVs infections [4,5].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%