Early warning signals of abrupt temperature change in different regions of China over the past 50 years

Abstract

Early warning signals of abrupt temperature change in different regions of China over the past 50 years * Tong Ji-Long(仝纪龙) a) , Wu Hao(吴 浩) a)b) † , Hou Wei(侯 威) c) , He Wen-Ping(何文平) c) , and Zhou Jie(周 杰) b) a)

A novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change

“…The PDO has been considered as an important indicator of the decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean (Meehl et al, 1993), which has a strong relationship with the climate of China (Wang et al, 2013). It has been shown in many previous studies, that this index has experienced several abrupt changes over the past 100 years (Mantua et al, 1997;Tsonis et al, 2007), and that all of these abrupt changes correspond to the global climate changes.…”

“…The climate system is complex and chaotic (Shi, 2009). The abrupt climate change is described as the system transitioning from one stable state to another (Thom, 1972;Tong et al, 2014), i.e., the system swings between different states (Lorenz, 1976;Charney and DeVore, 1979), and it also has been verified in the climate system (Dai et al, 2012;Baker and Charlson, 1990;Wang et al, 2012;Alley et al, 2003;Xiao et al, 2011). Detection methods (Wan and Zhang, 2008;Fu and Wang, 1992;Yamamoto et al, 1986) have been greatly developed.…”

Early-Warning Signals of Drought-Flood State Transition over the Dongting Lake Basin Based on the Critical Slowing Down Theory

“…Based on the critical slowing down theory, Yan et al [40] processed the data of radon concentrations in water and revealed that the early-warning signals of increasing variances and autocorrelation coefficients appeared before the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008. In recent years, several scholars [41][42][43][44][45] applied this theory to climate data, such as the regional temperature in China, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index and the intensity of Aleutian low, aiming to study the earlywarning signals of abrupt climatic changes. On the basis of existing early-warning signals, He et al [46][47][48] made some improvements and developed a set of quantitative earlywarning signals and methods for abrupt climatic changes.…”

A novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change

“…The abrupt climate change is described as the system transitioning from one stable state to another (Thom, 1972;Tong et al, 2014), i.e., the system swings between different states (Lorenz, 1976;Charney and DeVore, 1979), and it also has been verified in the climate system (Dai et al, 2012;Baker and Charlson, 1990;Wang et al, 2012;Alley et al, 2003;Xiao et al, 2011). Detection methods (Wan and Zhang, 2008;Fu and Wang, 1992;Yamamoto et al, 1986) have been greatly developed.…”