Earthquake Scenario-Based Tsunami Wave Heights in the Eastern Mediterranean and Connected Seas

Necmioğlu, Öcal; Özel, Nurcan Meral

doi:10.1007/s00024-015-1069-y

Cited by 19 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 98 publications

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“…Recently, an extensive tsunami simulation databank for the East-Mediterranean was published 11 . We can use their results to compare/validate our current study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the present study, we follow the deterministic approach but strongly increase the amount of analyzed sources – in fact, we present the first analysis of all up-to-now known real faults in the Mediterranean and provide a systematic evaluation of their tsunamigenic potential. Earlier, Necmioglu & Özel 11 published an extensive deterministic analysis covering a wide range of magnitudes and hypocenters in the Eastern Mediterranean. In contrast to their study, which employs the concept of area sources, we settle ruptures along the mapped fault structures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tsunamigenic potential of crustal faults and subduction zones in the Mediterranean

Petricca

Babeyko

2019

Sci Rep

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We compiled a database and systematically evaluated tsunamigenic potential of all up-to-date known crustal fault systems and subduction zones in the entire Mediterranean region that has experienced several catastrophic tsunamis in historical times. The task is accomplished by means of numerical modeling of tsunami generation and propagation. We have systematically simulated all representative ruptures populating known crustal faults and subduction interfaces with magnitudes ranging from 6.1 up to expected Mw max . Maximum tsunami heights calculated everywhere along the coasts allowed us to classify the sources in terms of their tsunamigenic potential and to estimate their minimum tsunamigenic magnitude. Almost every source in the Mediterranean, starting from Mw = 6.5, is capable to produce local tsunami at the advisory level (wave height >20 cm and ≤50 cm). In respect to the watch level (wave height >50 cm) larger magnitudes are needed (M w ≥ 6.9). Faults behave more heterogeneously in the context of far field early warning. De-aggregation of the database at any selected coastal location can reveal relevant sources of tsunami hazard for this location. Our compilation blueprints methodology that, if completed with source recurrence rates and site-specific amplification factors, can be considered as a backbone for development of optimal early warning strategies by Mediterranean tsunami warning providers.

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“…Recently, an extensive tsunami simulation databank for the East-Mediterranean was published 11 . We can use their results to compare/validate our current study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tsunamigenic potential of crustal faults and subduction zones in the Mediterranean

Petricca

Babeyko

2019

Sci Rep

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“…For each of the six scenarios, we have thus modeled the tsunami triggered by these two different seismic sources, one being quite long with a moderate slip, the other being rather stocky with a bigger slip. To obtain results both on a worst-case point of view and on the minimum impact attended, calculation on three levels of magnitude has been performed: 8.4-8.5 (''worst-case''), 8.0 and 7.8 (i.e., looking for the minimum magnitude required for the tsunami to be observed in the Western Mediterranean basin; Necmioglu and Ö zel 2015). Associated source parameters are reported in Table 2.…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The recent work of Necmioglu and Ö zel (2015) is based on a tsunami scenarios database gridding the Eastern Mediterranean every 0.5°(magnitude ranging from 6.5 to 8.5) and in which all sources have the regionalized fault parameters derived from the historical focal mechanisms that would generate the worst tsunami scenarios. Their results show that the tsunami amplitude expected on coastlines of Western Mediterranean (Italy, Sardinia, Sicily) would be less than 50 cm considering an M C 8.0 event (modeling performed on a 30 00 grid).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Hellenic Arc Tsunamis on Corsica (France)

Gailler

Schindelé

Hébert

2016

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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In the historical period, the Eastern Mediterranean has been devastated by several tsunamis, the two most damaging were those of AD 365 and AD 1303, generated by great earthquakes of magnitude [8 at the Hellenic plate boundary. Recently, events of 6-7 magnitude have occurred in this region. As the French tsunami warning center has to ensure the warning for the French coastlines, the question has raised the possibility for a major tsunami triggered along the Hellenic arc to impact the French coasts. The focus is on the Corsica coasts especially, to estimate what would be the expected wave heights, and from which threshold of magnitude it would be necessary to put the population under cover. This study shows that a magnitude 8.0 earthquake nucleated along the Hellenic arc could induce in some cases a tsunami that would be observed along the Corsica coasts, and for events of 8.5 magnitude amplitudes exceeding 50 cm can be expected, which would be dangerous in harbors and beach areas especially. The main contribution of these results is the establishment of specific thresholds of magnitude for the tsunami warning along the French coasts, 7.8 for the advisory level (coastal marine threat with harbors and beaches evacuation), and 8.3 for the watch level (inland inundation threat) for tsunamis generated along the Hellenic arc.

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“…Due to such high seismicity and existing records of tsunami occurrences, tsunami warning systems have been developed for the Mediterranean basin in the framework of the NEAMTWS (North East Atlantic, Mediterranean and Connected seas Tsunami Warning System) since 2005 (Tinti et al 2012;Papadopoulos and Fokaefs 2013;Papadopoulos 2015;IOC 2015;Necmioglu and Özel 2015;Necmioğlu 2016;Okal et al 2009;Synolakis and Bernard 2006;Satake 2014). Starting from 2017, several countries (i.e., France, Greece, Italy, and Turkey) are equipped with national tsunami warning centers and act as Tsunami Service Providers (TSPs).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential deployment of offshore bottom pressure gauges and adoption of data assimilation for tsunami warning system in the western Mediterranean Sea

et al. 2019

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Western Mediterranean Basin (WMB) is among tsunamigenic zones with numerous historical records of tsunami damage and deaths. Most recently, a moderate tsunami on 21 May 2003 offshore Algeria, North Africa, was a fresh call for strengthening tsunami warning capabilities in this enclosed water basin. Here, we propose to deploy offshore bottom pressure gauges (OBPGs) and to adopt the framework of a tsunami data assimilation (TDA) approach for providing timely tsunami forecasts. We demonstrate the potential enhancement of the tsunami warning system through the case study of the 2003 Algeria tsunami. Four scenarios of OBPG arrangements involving 10, 5, 3 and 2 gauges are considered. The offshore gauges are located at distances of 120-300 km from the North African coast. The warning lead times are 20, 30, 48 and 55 min for four points of interest considered in this study: Ibiza, Palma, Sant Antoni and Barcelona, respectively. The forecast accuracies are in the range of 69-85% for the four OBPG scenarios revealing acceptable accuracies for tsunami warnings. We conclude that installation of OBPGs in the WMB can be helpful for providing successful and timely tsunami forecasts. We note that the OBPG scenarios proposed in this study are applicable only for the case of the 2003 Algeria tsunami. Further studies including sensitivity analyses (e.g., number of OBPG stations; earthquake magnitude, strike, epicenter) are required in order to determine OBPG arrangements that could be useful for various earthquake scenarios in the WMB.

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Earthquake Scenario-Based Tsunami Wave Heights in the Eastern Mediterranean and Connected Seas

Cited by 19 publications

References 98 publications

Tsunamigenic potential of crustal faults and subduction zones in the Mediterranean

Tsunamigenic potential of crustal faults and subduction zones in the Mediterranean

Impact of Hellenic Arc Tsunamis on Corsica (France)

Potential deployment of offshore bottom pressure gauges and adoption of data assimilation for tsunami warning system in the western Mediterranean Sea

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