East African agriculture and climate change A comprehensive analysis

Institute, International Food Policy Research

doi:10.2499/9780896292055

Cited by 21 publications

(20 citation statements)

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“…Daily minimum temperatures continued to rise and were significantly increasing in Mbarara and Masindi. Our findings are consistent with climate models which suggest that most of the areas in Uganda by 2050 will experience a rise in high temperatures in the warmest month of between 2° and 2.5°C (Bashaasha et al, 2013). These results also compare well with global projections (Narayanan et al, 2013;Oguntunde, et al, 2011;IPCC, 2007).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Trends in variability and extremes of rainfall and temperature in the cattle corridor of Uganda

Owoyesigire¹,

Mpairwe²,

Ericksen³

et al. 2016

Uganda Journal of Agricultural Sciences

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A study was conducted to determine trends of variability and extremes in rainfall and temperature in order to inform stakeholder's decisions in planning for appropriate adaptation strategies to climate change. Daily rainfall and temperature data sets from 1961 to 2013 were used. Data were subjected to trend analysis using non-parametric Mann-Kendall tests while rainfall and temperature extremes were derived using RClimdex software. Coefficient of variation (CV) in annual rainfall was 25.3, 12.9 and 16.3 % for Mbarara, Masindi and Soroti respectively. Mean daily maximum temperatures were 26.7, 29.6 and 30.8 o C for Mbarara, Masindi and Soroti respectively. Annual total wet days were increasing but not significant (P>0.05). Consecutive wet days (CWD) were increasing only in Mbarara while consecutive dry days, CDDs revealed weak declining trends in Mbarara and stronger significant increasing trends in Soroti (P<0.05). The number of hot days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p) was significantly increasing (P< 0.05) in Mbarara and Masindi. The number of warmest nights (TNx) and hottest days (TXx) was also significantly increasing (P<0.05). Mean diurnal temperature range, DTR showed significant decreasing trends in Mbarara and Masindi (P<0.05) while in Soroti it was significantly increasing. The observed increasing temperatures, coupled with declining CWDs and increasing CDDs will most likely result into increased heat stress to livestock, drying of most surface water sources and changes in pasture species composition thus causing a decline in livestock productivity.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Trends in variability and extremes of rainfall and temperature in the cattle corridor of Uganda

Owoyesigire¹,

Mpairwe²,

Ericksen³

et al. 2016

Uganda Journal of Agricultural Sciences

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“…In addition, human and environmental stressors such as land use changes associated with rapid urbanization and uncoordinated expansion of intensive agricultural production in these wetlands negatively impair their water availability, quality and other ecosystem services and functioning [2,4,5]. The negative impacts associated with climate and land use change are also compounded by other factors, notably exacerbating poverty and high population pressure, which is anticipated to increase demand for food and water in the future [6,7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Water Resources of a Tropical Inland Valley Catchment in Uganda, East Africa

Gabiri

Diekkrüger

Näschen

et al. 2020

Climate

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The impact of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change continues to threaten water resources availability for the agriculturally used inland valley wetlands and their catchments in East Africa. This study assessed climate and LULC change impacts on the hydrological processes of a tropical headwater inland valley catchment in Uganda. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to analyze climate and LULC change impacts on the hydrological processes. An ensemble of six regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used for climate change assessment for historical (1976–2005) and future climate (2021–2050). Four LULC scenarios defined as exploitation, total conservation, slope conservation, and protection of headwater catchment were considered. The results indicate an increase in precipitation by 7.4% and 21.8% of the annual averages in the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Future wet conditions are more pronounced in the short rainy season than in the long rainy season. Flooding intensity is likely to increase during the rainy season with low flows more pronounced in the dry season. Increases in future annual averages of water yield (29.0% and 42.7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) and surface runoff (37.6% and 51.8% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) relative to the historical simulations are projected. LULC and climate change individually will cause changes in the inland valley hydrological processes, but more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, although LULC changes will have a dominant influence. Adoption of total conservation, slope conservation and protection of headwater catchment LULC scenarios will significantly reduce climate change impacts on water resources in the inland valley. Thus, if sustainable climate-smart management practices are adopted, the availability of water resources for human consumption and agricultural production will increase.

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“…Three population and GDP growth scenarios were used in combination with three climate scenarios, at global and regional scales. Waithaka et al (2013) Assessed linkages between agricultural production and food security, at national and regional levels.…”

Section: Strengths Of Impact Includementioning

confidence: 99%

Land-Use Modelling in New Zealand: Current Practice and Future Needs

Hendy

Ausseil

Bain³

et al. 2018

SSRN Journal

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This paper was prepared under Motu's Shaping New Zealand's Low-Emission Future programme, with funding support from the Ministry for Primary Industries and the Aotearoa Foundation. It was informed by the Motu Researcher Workshop on Land Use and Climate Change held in Wellington on 30 April 2018, and we gratefully acknowledge the contributions by presenters and other participants in that process. We also wish to acknowledge Susan Walker from Manaaki Whenua-Landcare Research, who reviewed parts of this paper. Disclaimer Contributions to the researcher workshop and this report were made in individuals' personal capacity and their inclusion in this paper does not imply any recommendation, consensus or endorsement by all participants, their affiliated organisations or the programme funders. While every effort has been made to ensure the information in this publication is accurate, the Ministry for Primary Industries does not accept any responsibility or liability for error of fact, omission, interpretation or opinion that may be present, nor for the consequences of any decisions based on this information.

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East African agriculture and climate change A comprehensive analysis

Cited by 21 publications

References 0 publications

Trends in variability and extremes of rainfall and temperature in the cattle corridor of Uganda

Trends in variability and extremes of rainfall and temperature in the cattle corridor of Uganda

Impact of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Water Resources of a Tropical Inland Valley Catchment in Uganda, East Africa

Land-Use Modelling in New Zealand: Current Practice and Future Needs

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