Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete‐Time Duration Models

Jenkins, Stephen P.

doi:10.1111/j.1468-0084.1995.tb00031.x

“…In addition, these models can be estimated using conventional regression techniques for binary response panel data (see e.g. Jenkins, 1995). While it can be shown that a stacked binary choice model employing a complementary log-log (cloglog) link function represents the exact groupedduration analogue of the Cox proportional hazards model, the more familiar logit and probit specifications do not imply the proportional hazards assumption (see e.g.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the duration of EU imports

Heß

¹

,

Persson

²

2011

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, against the background of an existing empirical literature on the duration of trade which has found that international trade is often of strikingly short duration, we aim to establish whether or not EU imports from the rest of the world also are short-lived. Second, since there is at this point no clear commonly accepted theoretical explanation for these short trade durations, we seek to provide a thorough empirical description and analysis of the phenomenon, with the intention of thereby facilitating theoretical developments on the subject. We employ a rich data set of detailed imports to the EU15 countries from 140 exporters, covering the time period 1962-2006. Using these data, we begin by conducting a thorough descriptive analysis of the duration of EU imports. Thereafter, we perform a regression analysis using discrete-time duration models with proper controls for unobserved heterogeneity. We draw the conclusion that EU imports are indeed very short-lived -in fact, possibly more so than, for example, US imports. The median duration of EU imports is for example merely one year, and almost 60 percent of all spells cease during the first year of service. Among our empirical findings are (i) that the duration of trade remains stable across the long time period that we study; (ii) that short trade durations are the result of at least two processes: countries shifting between different suppliers but continuing to import a given product, and countries ceasing to import the product altogether; and (iii) that countries with a diversified export structure also will tend to have more long-lived export flows. In our formal regression, we are also able to find a set of explanatory variables that have statistically significant effects on the probability that trade flows die. Terms of use: Documents in

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“…As mentioned in the Introduction, we test the former by demonstrating that the duration between the end of compulsory education at the age of 18 and each year of potential graduation is unrelated to the provincial unemployment rate in those years. 18 In a nutshell, we estimate a proportional discrete hazard model (Kiefer, 1988;Jenkins, 1995) that regresses a yearly indicator of graduation since age 17 on observed individual characteristics and the province of living measured at age 17, the elapsed duration (in years) in education since age 17, and the provincial unemployment rate in each potential year of graduation (i.e. an interaction term with the elapsed duration).…”

Section: Estimation Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

Scars of recessions in a rigid labor market

Cockx

¹

,

Ghirelli

²

2016

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may Scars of Recessions in a Rigid Labor Market AbstractWe study the impact of graduating in a recession in Flanders (Belgium), i.e. in a rigid labor market. In the presence of a high minimum wage, a typical recession hardly influences the hourly wage of low educated men, but reduces working time and earnings by about 4.5% up to twelve years after graduation. For the high educated, the working time is not persistently affected, but the penalty on the hourly wage (and earnings) increases with experience, and attains roughly -6% ten years after labor market entry. We also contribute to the literature on inference with few clusters.

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“…Part of such variation can be accounted for by controlling for household's observed individual characteristics. Accordingly, we specify a complementary log-log hazard rate (Jenkins, 1995): h(j, X) = 1 -exp[-exp('X+ j )], where , the baseline hazard, is modeled as a piecewise-constant function by using dummy variables for each year in poverty. The matrix of covariates X contains the household, farm and village characteristics and β is a vector of parameters to be estimated.…”

Section: Poverty Exitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Persistent Poverty in Rural China: Where, Why, and How to Escape?

Glauben

¹

,

Herzfeld

²

,

Rozelle

³

et al. 2012

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Using rural household panel data from three Chinese provinces, this paper identifies determinants of long-term poverty and tests the duration dependence on the probability to leave poverty. Special emphasis is given to the selection of the poverty line and inter-regional differences across provinces. Results suggest that the majority of population seems to be only temporary poor. However, the probability to leave poverty for those who were poor is differently affected by poverty duration across provinces ranging from no duration dependence in Zhejiang to highly significant duration dependence in Yunnan. The number of non-working family members, education, and several village characteristics seem to be the most important covariates. Terms of use: Documents in

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Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete‐Time Duration Models

Cited by 671 publications

References 10 publications

Exploring the duration of EU imports

Exploring the duration of EU imports

Scars of recessions in a rigid labor market

Persistent Poverty in Rural China: Where, Why, and How to Escape?

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