8Background: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease resulting in a huge 9 burden of mortality and impact on development of a country. Even though anti-leishmanial 10 drugs reduce the incidence of mortality among VL patients, still there is a death of VL patients 11 while on treatment. However, study on incidence of mortality and its predictors among these 12 patients while on treatment is scarce in Ethiopia.
13Objective: The aim of this study was to determine incidence of mortality and its predictors 14 among adult VL patients at University of Gondar Hospital. 15 Methods: Institution based retrospective follow up study was conducted from 2013 to 2018 at 16 University of Gondar Hospital. Data were collected from patients' chart and analyzed using 17 Stata 14. Kaplan Meier failure curve and Log Rank test was used to compare survival 18 probability of patients with categorical variables. Multivariable stratified Cox model was used 19to identify predictors of mortality among VL patients. P≤ 0.05 was employed to declare 20 statistically significant factors. Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) and its 95% confidence interval 21 (95% CI) was estimated for potential risk factors included in the multivariable model. 22Results: A total of 586 VL patients were included in the study. The median age of patients was 23 23 years. The incidence of mortality was 6.6 (95% CI: 5.2 -8.4) per 1000 person-days of 2 24 observation. Independent predictors of mortality were: presence of comorbidity (AHR=2.29 ( 25 95% CI: 1.27-4.11)), relapse VL (AHR=3.03 (95% CI: 1.25-7.35)), toxicity of treatment drug 26 (AHR=5.87( 95% CI:3.30-10.44)), nasal bleeding (AHR=2.58 ( 95%CI: 1.48-4.51)), jaundice 27 (AHR=2.84 (95% CI: 1.57-5.16)) and being bedridden (AHR=3.26 (95 % CI: 1.86-5.73)).
28Conclusion: The incidence of mortality among VL patients was high. Mortality was higher 29 among VL patients with concomitant disease, relapse, toxicity during treatment, nasal 30 bleeding, jaundice, and bedridden patients. Therefore, strict follow up and treatment of VL 31 patients who have comorbidity, relapse VL, toxicity, nasal bleeding and jaundice were crucial 32 so as to reduce the risk of mortality.
33Visceral leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by a protozoa parasite. Over 90% 37 of global burden of VL occurs in poor rural and suburban areas in seven countries including 38 our country, Ethiopia. If not appropriately treated, over 95% of VL cases will eventually die.
39The emergence of VL in Ethiopia places a huge burden on society as it affects poor, young and 40 productive age group of its population. However, there is scarcity of data about incidence of 41 mortality and its predictors among adult VL patients in Ethiopia.
42In this study, a registry of VL patients at Gondar University Hospital was taken to determine 43 the incidence of VL mortality and its predictors. Mortality rate was higher among VL patients 44 with concomitant disease, relapse, drug toxicity, nasal bleeding and jaundice. Therefore, strict 45 follow up a...