Ecological models in support of regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: developing a strategy for the future

Abstract

This brief communication reports on the main findings of the LEMTOX workshop, held from 9 to 12 September 2007, at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) in Leipzig, Germany. The workshop brought together a diverse group of stakeholders from academia, regulatory authorities, contract research organizations, and industry, representing Europe, the United States, and Asia, to discuss the role of ecological modeling in risk assessments of pesticides, particularly under the European regulatory framework. The following questions were addressed: What are the potential benefits of using ecological models in pesticide registration and risk assessment? What obstacles prevent ecological modeling from being used routinely in regulatory submissions? What actions are needed to overcome the identified obstacles? What recommendations should be made to ensure good modeling practice in this context? The workshop focused exclusively on population models, and discussion was focused on those categories of population models that link effects on individuals (e.g., survival, growth, reproduction, behavior) to effects on population dynamics. The workshop participants concluded that the overall benefits of ecological modeling are that it could bring more ecology into ecological risk assessment, and it could provide an excellent tool for exploring the importance of, and interactions among, ecological complexities. However, there are a number of challenges that need to be overcome before such models will receive wide acceptance for pesticide risk assessment, despite having been used extensively in other contexts (e.g., conservation biology). The need for guidance on Good Modeling Practice (on model development, analysis, interpretation, evaluation, documentation, and communication), as well as the need for case studies that can be used to explore the added value of ecological models for risk assessment, were identified as top priorities. Assessing recovery potential of exposed nontarget species and clarifying the ecological relevance of standard laboratory test results are two areas for which ecological modeling may be able to provide considerable benefits.

Improving mesocosm data analysis through individual-based modelling of control population dynamics: a case study with mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki)

“…Models are classically used to upscale effects from individual level to population level (Forbes et al 2009;Forbes et al 2011). Our model could also be used in this purpose.…”

CREAM: a European project on mechanistic effect models for ecological risk assessment of chemicals

“…Current risk assessments are mainly based on ecotoxicological endpoints at the level of individual organisms, but according to the EU directives, the protection goal aims at achieving sustainable populations (European Commission 2002a, 2002bForbes et al 2009;Preuss et al 2009a; Thorbek et al 2009). Population-level effects depend not only on exposure and toxicity, but also on important ecological factors that are impossible to fully address empirically.…”

Integrating population modeling into ecological risk assessment

“…However, both industry and regulators are showing increasing interest in exploring the potential of such models in a risk assessment context as evidenced in several of recent initiatives (e.g., Munns et al 2008;Forbes et al 2009;Grimm et al 2009;Preuss et al 2009). There are several reasons that the timing is right to integrate population modeling into ERA.…”