Econometric analysis of short-run and long-run determinants of agricultural value addition in Africa

Onoja, Anthony O.; Achike, Anthonia Ifeyinwa; Ajibade, Toyin Benedict

doi:10.4314/agrosh.v17i1.3

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…However, finance provision to oil palm (OP), cocoa, fishery, poultry, cattle and roots, and tubers, became stationary after I(1). By implication and as asserted by Pesaran and Shin (1999), Pesaran et al (2001), supported in Onoja et al (2017); autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) test will be sufficient to determine the short-run and long-run cointegration relationship irrespective of whether series is of I(0) or I(1) but not I(2).…”

Section: Findings and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…This was also confirmed through other tests by determining the series lag selection criterion, model diagnostics, model stability, Wald test, the cumulative sum CUSUM test, and error correction term (ECM) in the path to estimating the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). The study methodology is premised on that of Ayeomoni and Aladejana (2016), Onoja et al (2017). Data for the series is time series consisting of real values of agricultural credit guaranteed provision to oil palm (OP), cocoa, groundnuts (Gnts), fishery, poultry, cattle, and roots and tubers as the independent variables; while inflation deflated real gross domestic product (RGDP) is used and serves as the dependent variable.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Unlike in model diagnostic where F-statistic is checked against its corresponding probability, the F-statistic in Wald Test is checked against its bounds critical value table (Pesaran et al 2001). So, it does not matter whether the Wald table probability is significant or not, Bounds critical value table is used as a determinant (Pesaran et al 2001, Nkoro and Uko 2016, Onoja et al 2017. Accordingly, a figure below a certain Bounds critical value I0 (i.e.…”

Section: Wald Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Agricultural Finance and Economic Growth: Evidence From Nigeria

Okunlola

Osuma

Omankhanlen

2019

Business: Theory and Practice

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The study performed an in-depth examination of the impact of guaranteed agricultural finance to oil palm, cocoa, groundnuts, fishery, poultry, cattle, roots, and tubers on the real gross domestic product of the country. Time series data was sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin of various issues. The data sets covered thirty-seven (37) years spanning from 1981 to 2017. The study used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for its analysis. However, prior estimation and due to several exogenous variables, Phillip Perron stationarity test was used to determine the order of integration because of its robustness to serial correlation and heteroskedasticity. The study also specified the lag criterion based on LR, FPE, AIC, SC, and HQ using Newey-West covariance matrix estimator. Findings from both short-run and long-run models as confirmed by the Wald test, which shows that none of the guaranteed agricultural finance is statistically significant to real gross domestic product. The study, therefore, recommends increased funding and deliberate efforts at determining which of the nominated agricultural spending has the most contributory impact on growth.

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Section: Findings and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Wald Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Agricultural Finance and Economic Growth: Evidence From Nigeria

Okunlola

Osuma

Omankhanlen

2019

Business: Theory and Practice

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“…A possible solution could be sustainable intensification as a compromise to avoid further expansion of oil palm in the future (Manik et al 2013, Elmhirst et al 2017b, Sharma et al 2019. Along the same lines, some studies highlight the controversial role, as regards food security, of oil palm cultivation, especially in relation to biofuel production (Meijaard and Sheil 2019), which could increase the risk of competition between land uses and encourage land grabbing (Bassey 2016, Onoja et al 2017. Another study maintains that the increase in land converted for oil palm cultivation in Indonesia could lead to rapid urbanization of the areas surrounding the plantations, which, together with the migration that often accompanies such expansion, could pose a risk to the food security of smallholders and their families (Budidarsono et al 2013).…”

Section: Sdg 2: Zero Hungermentioning

confidence: 99%

Palm oil’s contribution to the United Nations sustainable development goals: outcomes of a review of socio-economic aspects

Chiriacò

Bellotta

Jusic

2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Palm oil is at the same time the world’s most used vegetable oil and the most criticized for its environmental impacts due to the observed reduction in tropical forest areas for its cultivation over the past decades. There is, however, very little discussion on the socio-economic implications associated with the production of palm oil. To contribute to a more informed debate we conducted an in-depth review of the existing literature addressing the various socio-economic aspects of the production of palm oil, outlining its contribution to the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The outcomes, findings, and conclusions from 82 studies, published from 2010 onward, were considered as positive, negative, neutral or varied, and sometimes even contradicting, with regard to the contribution of the palm cultivation and/or oil production to the achievement of a set of eight SDGs, selected considering those most related to the socio-economic development, differentiating when possible between sustainable and conventional production. Results show that it is difficult to draw uniform views, highlighting the nuances and varied facets of the contribution of palm oil to the eight SDGs, some of which are inevitably interconnected. In general, it emerges that palm oil plays a crucial role in boosting the economy and livelihoods of the local communities in many developing producer countries, substantially contributing to poverty reduction and to food security. However, the expansion of oil palm plantations has, in some cases, exacerbated social inequalities and the economic growth generated by the palm oil production chain is not always accompanied by decent working conditions. Against this backdrop, the achievement of some sustainable development goals is often facilitated by the implementation of sustainability certification schemes which play a key role in improving the socio-economic and environmental performance of palm oil production, enhancing socio-economic livelihoods for the people living in the production areas in terms of working conditions, infrastructure, services and higher wages, with consequent reduction of poverty rates, increase in quality education, better access to food and health care systems.

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“…In recent decades, a newly developed autoregressive method, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, has been proposed to test the long-run relationships and short-run dynamics that underlie multiple variables in time series models. This new approach coupled with its associated error correction model (ECM) is widely used to quantify and estimate the long term and short term effects of economic variables (Scott-Joseph and Turner, 2019, Onoja et al, 2017, Zheng et al, 2012. In this paper, the ARDL approach is used to model property cycles in Australia.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

International Real Estate Review

Hu¹,

Tiwari²

2021

IRER

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This paper identifies the impact of macroeconomic determinants of commercial property investment and development markets in Australia. A Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is used to filter the cyclical components of commercial property investment and development time series. In order to identify the long-run relationships and short-run dynamics, coupled with causality between these factors and property cycles, the investment and development property cycles are analyed with respect to the movement of nine macroeconomic factors by using time series data from 1987 to 2016. The empirical results suggest that the Australian commercial property market is often in an overdemand situation rather than oversupply, which can be explained by the different patterns of the property cycles on the demand and supply sides. Property investment cycles are shorter and more volatile than development cycles at around 8-10 years and more than 20 years, respectively, since there is a larger elasticity of the macroeconomic factors that underlie the investment market with short-term dynamics, while the development cycle is mainly affected by such factors moderately in the long run. Both the investment and development markets are intensively affected by financing related variables rather than market-sentiment and economic-cycle related variables.

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Econometric analysis of short-run and long-run determinants of agricultural value addition in Africa

Cited by 7 publications

References 6 publications

Agricultural Finance and Economic Growth: Evidence From Nigeria

Agricultural Finance and Economic Growth: Evidence From Nigeria

Palm oil’s contribution to the United Nations sustainable development goals: outcomes of a review of socio-economic aspects

International Real Estate Review

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