The study performed an in-depth examination of the impact of guaranteed agricultural finance to oil palm, cocoa, groundnuts, fishery, poultry, cattle, roots, and tubers on the real gross domestic product of the country. Time series data was sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin of various issues. The data sets covered thirty-seven (37) years spanning from 1981 to 2017. The study used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for its analysis. However, prior estimation and due to several exogenous variables, Phillip Perron stationarity test was used to determine the order of integration because of its robustness to serial correlation and heteroskedasticity. The study also specified the lag criterion based on LR, FPE, AIC, SC, and HQ using Newey-West covariance matrix estimator. Findings from both short-run and long-run models as confirmed by the Wald test, which shows that none of the guaranteed agricultural finance is statistically significant to real gross domestic product. The study, therefore, recommends increased funding and deliberate efforts at determining which of the nominated agricultural spending has the most contributory impact on growth.
The main purpose of this study is to scrutinize the effect of financial inclusion on financial sustainability, financial efficiency, gross domestic product, and human development in the context of G20 nations. This study has employed annual data of 15 developed and emerging economies during the period from 2004 to 2017. The current study has utilized a single index for financial inclusion, financial sustainability, and financial efficiency by employing principal composite analysis (PCA). The outcomes of the panel stationarity test confirmed the ARDL model for both the long and short runs. Equally, the findings of the ARDL Model 1 showed no association between financial inclusion and financial sustainability in the short run, however, in the long run, inclusive finance showed a significant impact on sustainability. Likewise, the ARDL Model 2 showed that financial inclusion has no effect on efficiency in the short run, while it positively influenced financial efficiency in the long run. The results of the ARDL Model 3 are also similar to Models 1 and 2 where inclusive finance showed no effect on poverty in the short run, but a significant effect in long run. Similarly, the ARDL Model 4 also presented no association between GDP and inclusive finance in the short run, while it showed significant relationships in the long run. Moreover, the outcomes of the GMM Model 1 showed a significant impact of inclusive finance on financial stability, and these results were similar to the GMM Model 2 between financial inclusion and financial efficiency. Additionally, GMM Models 3 and 4 have shown that inclusive finance has a statistically significant impact on poverty and economic expansion, respectively. The outcomes of this article are essential for policymakers, academics, regulators, and practitioners with valuable and convincing debate over financial inclusion, economic growth, poverty, sustainability, and financial efficiency.
Attempt at analyzing banks profitability informed this study. For sound and robust reviews of end report, the study took at comparing commercial banks across countries in Africa with emphasis on Nigeria, Ghana and South Africa owing to presumed position they occupy in the continent. To achieve its aims and from data provided by World Bank Group – International Monetary Funds, the study mirrored commercial banks profitability with total income (TI) hence, the dependent variable. The independent variables were proxied by total loan (TL) and customer deposits (CD). Data sets covers a ten (10) year period across cross –sections. Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) regression of pooled ordinary least square, fixed effect model (FE) and random effect (REM) models, with Hausman Test of acceptance were specified. Similarly, Panel descriptive statistics and Panel Unit Rootstest were also tested and confirmed. Analysis was done with the aid of E-views statistical software v9. Results from the Panel ARDL finds Fixed Effect (FE) Model appropriate having taking into considerations the heterogeneity observations often not obseverded in the pooled ordinary least square and the randomnization effect in RE. By implication, findings indicate that total loan is statistically insignificant acorss sections showing a prob. 0.0714 with inverse correlation of 0.0169 while, customer deposit is statistically significant with a prob 0.000 and positive coefficient at 0.0480 as judged by the Hauman Test of 0.01 percent. However, the overall coefficient of determination shows high variability of close to one percent, while the model fitness is confirmed fit by F-statistic at 0.000. The study suggested conclusion is the provision of sound risk management via collaborative-business growth model for optimally banks benefit in the region.
Succinct exploration of Adolph Wagner's Proposition [WP] 1883-Peacock and Wiseman 1961version was put to the validation test in the study. At least, this time, for a quinaquina octo annis period, representing the life span of Nigeria. Specific suspicion of shocks from data from the world indicator and monetary authority necessitated the adoption of the ADF test with structural breaks, which came out positive at alternating integrating order. This propelled the Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL model path having specified the lag selection automatically. Even though the series showed significant association in the short run, and bi-directional causality, the result of the Bound test-F-statistics (calculated) ¼ 3.42 falls below upper Bound I(0) ¼ 4.68 and lower bound I(1) ¼ 5.15 hence, invalidates the WP position in the longrun in Nigeria. This is an indication that a reduction in noneconomically viable and overlapping, funds-straining ministries/departments/agencies (MDA) is indispensable.
Financial inclusion Urban creditRural deposit Rural credit Urban deposit Per capita income.
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