Economic Analysis of the Export Potential of Grain Production in the Orenburg Regions

Abstract

One of the results of the implementation of the «Export of agricultural products» («Eksport produkcii APK») Federal Project was an increase in the supply of domestic products on the world market. During the years 2015–2020 on average, the export of Russian agricultural products was increasing 16% per year. Conditions such as the strengthening of Russia’s position in the global agri-food market, the need to ensure the achievement of the target indicators of the Federal project, impose high requirements on management information for the agro-industrial complex. The article focuses on examining the export potential of grain since it is a key product in the structure of Russian agricultural exports. The goal of the study is to quantify the export potential of grain production. The study was carried out on the materials from the Orenburg region of the years 2015–2019. The authors defined the export potential of grain production as a part of the gross grain harvest intended for export, not exceeding the value of domestic consumption. A change in such a metric should not pose a threat to the food security of the region for each particular type of agricultural product. To characterize the export potential of the industry, calculations were made based on the balance of resources and the use of grain, with the indicator of self-sufficiency in grain and other relative indicators being calculated. Research methods which were used: comparison, balance method, method of relative values, statistical methods of analysis of dynamics and structure, etc. The information which was used as a base of the study comes from the official data of Rosstat and its territorial body in the Orenburg region, as well as from the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation. The study concluded that the basis for strengthening and increasing the export potential of grain production with stable values of domestic consumption is to increase production by improving agricultural technologies and state policy for the development of agriculture and rural areas. The state should exercise control over the enhancement of export potential. Otherwise, there may be a threat to the food security of the region, as well as of the country as a whole. Scientific novelty of the research: the authors formulated the definition of the concept of «export potential of grain production», the authors also substantiated the system of indicators and performed a comprehensive measurement of the export potential of grain production in the Orenburg region. The significance of the research results for practice is to improve information and analytical support for the management of production and export of agricultural products.