Economic Conditions Affect Support for Prime Minister Parties in Scandinavia

Abstract

Previous research has not been able to identify a relationship between objective economic indicators and support for governing parties in the Scandinavian countries. This is potentially problematic, as it suggests that political leaders are not held electorally accountable for the economic conditions they provide for their electorates. In this article, it is suggested that this null-finding is a result of the particularities of the Scandinavian electoral context, which makes it difficult to identify the effects of the economy on electoral support. To bolster this argument, the relationship between unemployment, economic growth and support for prime minister parties is re-examined in two datasets. The first is a dataset of Scandinavian elections, and the second is a yearly Danish vote function, which was constructed using election polls. Across both datasets, it is found that if one simply correlates support for the prime minister's party with economic conditions, there is no relationship; however, if one specifies a statistical model, which takes the Scandinavian context into account, it is possible to identify a statistically significant effect of economic conditions on electoral support. Based on this finding, the article concludes that economic conditions do shape electoral support for prime minister parties in Scandinavia.

Radical women? Explaining the gender gap in radical right voting in the Nordic countries

“…Cross-national differences in history, language and politics -not to mention in the relative position of the radical right party and in the specifics of anti-immigrant attitudes -point to the possibility of meaningful variation in the size and substance of the gender gap in radical right voting. With the breakdown of traditional cleavages, political values and issue salience are becoming increasingly important predictors of party preference and vote choice (Karlsen and Aardal, 2016;Larsen, 2016). According to Karlsen and Aardal (2016: 264), voters 'make their decisions based on which parties' voters believe are better able to handle the issue they find most important'.…”

“…By the same token, women's more precarious social and economic position tends to push them towards favouring state involvement in the economy and in social welfare policies, drawing them to the left of the political spectrum (Iverson and Rosenbluth, 2006). Just as support for state redistribution of wealth pulls voters to the left, perceptions of financial hardship and the resulting loss of trust in institutions attracts voters towards the radical right (Larsen, 2016;Lamprianou and Ellinas, 2017). Some scholars argue that women's socialisation as carers has shaped their programmatic preferences, driving them to support more compassionate policies around welfare and immigration (Harteveld et al, 2015).…”