Economic Globalization and a Nuclear Renaissance

Abstract

SummaryThe phenomenon of globalization has become increasingly well recognized, documented, and analyzed in the last several years. Globalization, the integration of markets and intra-firm competition on a worldwide basis, involves complex behavioral and mindset changes within a firm that facilitate global competition. The changes revolve around efficient information flow and rapid deployment of technology. The objective of this report is to examine the probable characteristics of a global nuclear renaissance and its broad implications for industry structure and export control relative to nuclear technology. The question of how a modern renaissance would affect the trend toward globalization of the nuclear industry is addressed.This study concludes that modest improvements in the costs of nuclear power plants, coupled with their recent record of substantially improved operational performance, could result in a true "nuclear renaissance" within the next several decades. The improved economics required for this would come from "generation III+" and early "generation IV" plants," which substantially simplify plant safety and operation and are capable of being built in a much shorter time than the light water reactors now in service. Given the relative economics of nuclear and fossil units, a 20 to 30 percent decrease in unit cost could easily increase worldwide nuclear plant construction activity tenfold over current levels. The fact that licensing new designs and generating investor confidence will not happen precipitously means such a renaissance will take at least several years (probably a decade or two) to develop. Such a renaissance in nuclear power would greatly expand the volume of international nuclear technology trade over current levels. Some of the most promising new reactor designs are being developed by broad international consortia, and all would be marketed on a worldwide basis. This scenario would not reverse (and might reinforce) the trend toward globalization of the nuclear industry because only a few viable reactor designs would emerge, even in an aggressive scenario, and the cost-effectiveness required for selling these designs would be best achieved in a global nuclear technology firm.

Trump and the Ascension of Western Realism: A Critical Discussion on the Western Realists’ and Western Liberalists’ Evaluation of Globalisation

“…With globalisation comes many technological innovations; nuclear weapons, however, are regulated by a more complicated international regime. Globalisation creates an opportunity for the dissemination of knowledge to the whole world, which changes power dynamics, as there is a switch from the military use of nuclear technology to civilian use, as nuclear technology is now a manageable task and a potential option for several savage countries (Wood, Johnson, & Parker, 2001). The power of rogue actors from the Middle East has become too apparent in recent years, which is a great threat to world peace and order.…”

Long-Term Nuclear Industry Outlook - 2004

“…The second phase of the Globalization Project examined the characteristics of a global nuclear renaissance and its broad implications for industry structure and export control relative to nuclear technology (Wood et al 2001). The conclusions of this research were that modest improvements in the costs of nuclear power plants, coupled with the recent record of substantially improved operational performance, continued steady increases in power demand, and concerns over fossil fuel emissions, could result in the realization of a nuclear renaissance within the next several decades.…”

“…According to Wood et al (2001), "...a modest increase in the share of the nuclear power electrical market results in a very significant change in the number of plants under construction. "…”

“…Wood et al (2001) asserts that at most three to five designs will be economically viable (with a strong focus on only one or two primary design concepts). The structure of the industry will be coupled to the number of new reactor designs deployed.…”