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SummaryThe phenomenon of globalization has become increasingly well recognized, documented, and analyzed in the last several years. Globalization, the integration of markets and intra-firm competition on a worldwide basis, involves complex behavioral and mindset changes within a firm that facilitate global competition. The changes revolve around efficient information flow and rapid deployment of technology. The objective of this report is to examine the probable characteristics of a global nuclear renaissance and its broad implications for industry structure and export control relative to nuclear technology. The question of how a modern renaissance would affect the trend toward globalization of the nuclear industry is addressed.This study concludes that modest improvements in the costs of nuclear power plants, coupled with their recent record of substantially improved operational performance, could result in a true "nuclear renaissance" within the next several decades. The improved economics required for this would come from "generation III+" and early "generation IV" plants," which substantially simplify plant safety and operation and are capable of being built in a much shorter time than the light water reactors now in service. Given the relative economics of nuclear and fossil units, a 20 to 30 percent decrease in unit cost could easily increase worldwide nuclear plant construction activity tenfold over current levels. The fact that licensing new designs and generating investor confidence will not happen precipitously means such a renaissance will take at least several years (probably a decade or two) to develop. Such a renaissance in nuclear power would greatly expand the volume of international nuclear technology trade over current levels. Some of the most promising new reactor designs are being developed by broad international consortia, and all would be marketed on a worldwide basis. This scenario would not reverse (and might reinforce) the trend toward globalization of the nuclear industry because only a few viable reactor designs would emerge, even in an aggressive scenario, and the cost-effectiveness required for selling these designs would be best achieved in a global nuclear technology firm.

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This paper compares the sustainability of two light water reactor, LWR, fuel cycles: the once-through UOX (low-enriched uranium oxide) cycle and the twice-through MOX (Mixed Uranium-Plutonium Oxide) cycle (increasing the input efficiency of available uranium) by assessing their probable long-term competitiveness. With the retirement of diffusion enrichment facilities, enrichment prices have declined by onehalf since 2009 and are likely to remain below $100-kgSWU for the foreseeable future. Here, initial uranium prices are set at $90/kgU and reprocessing costs at $2,500 per kilogram of heavy-metal throughput, representative of "new-build" costs for reprocessing facilities. Substantial reprocessing cost reductions must be achieved if MOX is to be competitive, i.e., if it is to improve the sustainability of the LWR. However, results indicate that preserving the MOX alternative for spent fuel management later in this century has a large present value under several sets of assumptions regarding uranium price increases and reprocessing cost decreases.