Economic Growth and Income Distribution: Linking Macro-
economic Models with Household Survey Data at the Global Level

Bussolo, Maurizio; Hoyos, Rafael E. De; Medvedev, Denis

doi:10.34196/ijm.00027

Cited by 48 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…While LINKAGE provides the economy‐wide effects of demographic change over time, the GIDD microsimulation framework of Bussolo et al. () will be used to generate income distributions under the various scenarios. GIDD draws on household level survey data benchmarked to 2007 for over 128 countries to estimate income distributions by country that account for demographics, household characteristics (e.g.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Significant Is Sub‐Saharan Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?

Ahmed

Cruz

et al. 2016

Review Development Economics

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Sub-Saharan Africa will be undergoing substantial demographic changes over the next 15 years with the rising working-age share of its population. The opportunity of African countries to convert these changes into demographic dividends for growth and poverty reduction will depend on several factors. The outlook will likely be good if African countries can continue the gains already made under better institutions and policies, particularly those affecting the productivity of labor, such as educational outcomes. If African countries can continue to build on the hard-won development gains, the demographic dividend could account for 11-15% of gross domestic product (GDP) volume growth by 2030, while accounting for 40-60 million fewer poor in 2030. The gains can become more substantial with better educational outcomes that allow African countries to catch up to other developing countries. If the skill share of Africa's labor supply doubles because of improvements in educational attainment, from 25 to about 50% between 2011 and 2030, then the demographic dividends can expand the regional economy additionally by 22% by 2030 relative to the base case and reduce poverty by an additional 51 million people.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Significant Is Sub‐Saharan Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?

Ahmed

Cruz

et al. 2016

Review Development Economics

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“…The distributional analysis is carried out with the World Bank's GIDD model, which generalizes the existing CGE‐microsimulation methodologies at the global level and is described in detail in Bussolo et al (2010). Starting from the observed global distribution, the CGE model provides a set of link variables for the micro‐simulation: (a) change in the allocation of workers across sectors in the economy, (b) change in returns to labor by skill and occupation, (c) change in the relative price of food and nonfood consumption baskets, and (d) differentiation in per capita income/consumption growth rates across countries.…”

Section: Incorporating Indirect Poverty Effects Of Higher Food Pricesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Poverty Effects of Higher Food Prices: A Global Perspective

Hoyos

Medvedev

2011

Review Development Economics

117

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The spike in international food prices between 2005 and the first half of 2008 drew much attention to the vulnerability of the poor to such shocks. This paper provides a formal assessment of the direct and indirect impacts of higher prices of agricultural goods on global poverty using a representative sample of 63-93% of the developing world's population. To assess the direct effects, the paper uses domestic food price data between January 2005 and December 2007-when the relative price of food staples rose by an average of 5.6%-to find that the number of individuals living under the extreme poverty line increased by 155 million, with almost three-quarters of this increase taking place in East Asia. To take the second-order effects into account, the paper links household survey data with a global general equilibrium model, finding that the same increase in consumer prices of agricultural goods (modeled by increasing demand for first-generation biofuels) would raise the number of individuals living under extreme poverty by 32 million, with nearly the entire increase occurring in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

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“…12 The 'simulated' 9 For an empirical application of trade's effect on Mexican household welfare taking into account these effects, see Nicita (2004). 10 A detailed methodological description of the GIDD can be found in Bussolo et al (2010), as well as in the GIDD website referenced earlier. 11 The GIDD uses the LINKAGE model as the global CGE framework; see van der Mensbrugghe (2005) for a detailed description of LINKAGE.…”

Section: Figure 3 Inequality Variation Across Countries and Sectorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Free Trade in Agriculture and Global Poverty

2011

Self Cite

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This paper assesses the potential impacts of the removal of agriculture trade distortions using a newly developed data set and methodological approach for evaluating the global poverty and inequality effects of policy reforms. It finds that liberalisation of agriculture and food could increase global extreme poverty by 0.2 per cent and lower moderate poverty by 0.3 per cent. Beneath these small aggregate changes, most countries witness a substantial reduction in poverty, while South Asia – where half of the world’s poor reside – experiences an increase in extreme poverty incidence owing to high rates of protection afforded to unskilled‐intensive agricultural sectors. The distributional changes are likely to be mild but exhibit a strong regional pattern. Inequality is likely to fall in regions such as Latin America, which are characterised by high initial inequality, and rise in regions like South Asia, characterised by low initial inequality.

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Economic Growth and Income Distribution: Linking Macro- economic Models with Household Survey Data at the Global Level

Cited by 48 publications

References 29 publications

How Significant Is Sub‐Saharan Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?

How Significant Is Sub‐Saharan Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?

Poverty Effects of Higher Food Prices: A Global Perspective

Free Trade in Agriculture and Global Poverty

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