Economic performance and incumbents' support in Latin America

Murillo, María Victoria; Visconti, Giancarlo

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2016.10.007

Cited by 77 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 28 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Although less marked, we also find a high correlation with the six-month moving average of the inflation rate (0.55) (Kenski 1977). Although this is a simple correlation, and we are not modeling presidential approval, these data are consistent with previous research in Latin America (Stokes 1996; Lewis-Beck and Ratto 2013; Carlin, Love and Martínez-Gallardo 2015; Murillo and Visconti 2017;Carlin et al 2018). Feb Negative image Macri administration Monthly inflation t-1 (secondary axis)…”

Section: The Economic Backdropsupporting

confidence: 87%

It's (Almost) Always the Economy: Economic Performance and Political Realignments in Argentina in 2019

Garriga

Negri

2020

Rev. cienc. polít. (Santiago)

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This article analyzes the last year of the Mauricio Macri's administration in Argentina, and the accession of Alberto Fernández to power. We present a survey of the economic situation in 2019, the most important issues in the political agenda, and the political developments around the presidential election. We argue that the inability of the government to deliver on the economic front, and a realignment in the opposition, marked by Cristina Fernandez unexpectedly stepping down as presidential candidate, explain why Mauricio Macri was unable to get reelected.

show abstract

Section: The Economic Backdropsupporting

confidence: 87%

It's (Almost) Always the Economy: Economic Performance and Political Realignments in Argentina in 2019

Garriga

Negri

2020

Rev. cienc. polít. (Santiago)

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…These articles contribute to a growing literature on the dynamics of approval in presidential systems (e.g., Arce and Carrión, 2010;Carlin, Carreras and Love, forthcoming;Cuzán and Bundrick, 1997;Carlin, Hartlyn and Martínez-Gallardo, 2012;Johnson and Schwindt-Bayer 2009;Pérez-Liñán, 2007) by highlighting a set of factors that explain why some presidents deviate from the typical cyclical pattern. In line with previous research on economic voting in Latin America (e.g., Boelhouwer Menezes, 2018;Benton, 2005;Cabezas, 2015;Cabezas and Navia, 2010;Echegaray, 2005;Gélineau, 2007;Johnson and Schwindt-Bayer, 2009;Lewis-Beck and Ratto, 2013;Love and Windsor, 2018;Luna, 2002;Menezes, 2018;Murillo and Visconti, 2017;Singer, 2013Singer, , 2015Singer and Carlin, 2013;Visconti, 2017), all of the authors in this special issue agree that economic outputs -and economic perceptions of performance-go a long way in explaining patterns of executive approval. Also in line with previous work (Powell and Whitten, 1993), some of the articles find that institutions can alter patterns of approval.…”

Section: Case Studies Of Outliers Of Presidential Approvalsupporting

confidence: 85%

Introducción Número Especial: OUTLIERS OF PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL: DYNAMICS, LEVELS, AND RATES

Carlin¹,

Martínez-Gallardo²

2019

Rev. Lat. Op. Pub.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Presidential approval tends to exhibit the dynamics of honeymoon, decline, and a rebound as elections near. But several presidential administrations and, indeed, some countries themselves, do not conform to this pattern. This introduction to the special issue identifies and classifies outliers to the typical dynamics of approval using a 12-category taxonomy and data on 140 presidential administrations in 18 Latin American countries from the Executive Approval Project 1.0. Contributors to this special issue use this taxonomy to select outlier cases to explain in their respective articles. This combination of cross-national and case-study approaches suggest a more general theory of presidential approval can be constructed by systematically testing new hypotheses generated in this special issue concerning the role of governing style, political communication, security, policy choice, and institutional context. 1 The authors are grateful to Mariano Torcal and the editorial board of RLOP for their encouragement and support of this special issue. We thank Peter Enns,

show abstract

“…Sociodemographic variables also have been shown to exhibit explanatory power, such as Gender (Morgan, ), Education , and Income (Zechmeister & Zizumbo‐Colunga, ; Layton & Smith, ; Handlin, ; Mainwaring, Torcal, & Somma, ; see also Murillo & Visconti, ) . We have no clear expectation because the direction of these control variables would depend on the political platform of the incumbent.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The political cost of public–private partnerships: Theory and evidence from Colombian infrastructure development

2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Infrastructure public–private partnerships (PPPs) eschew traditional public management to provide distributive goods worldwide. Yet, in Colombia, the context of our study, both the promise of and voters' experience with PPPs hinder incumbent parties in elections when theories of distributive politics expect otherwise. We argue that negative experiences with PPPs introduce a sociotropic turn in individual voting: bad experience crowds out the possibility that promising a new project will improve a voter's own welfare. Studying what are, to our knowledge, all 109 Colombian PPP projects between 1998 and 2014, and over 8,700 individual survey responses, our evidence shows that vote intention for the incumbent executive or his party decreases as experience with more PPPs in respondents' districts increases. Our analysis and results introduce an important agenda for research into the political significance of these legacies of new public management.

show abstract

Economic performance and incumbents' support in Latin America

Cited by 77 publications

References 28 publications

It's (Almost) Always the Economy: Economic Performance and Political Realignments in Argentina in 2019

It's (Almost) Always the Economy: Economic Performance and Political Realignments in Argentina in 2019

Introducción Número Especial: OUTLIERS OF PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL: DYNAMICS, LEVELS, AND RATES

The political cost of public–private partnerships: Theory and evidence from Colombian infrastructure development

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About