Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach

Miguel, Edward; Satyanath, Shanker; Sergenti, Ernest

doi:10.1086/421174

Cited by 1,909 publications

(1,526 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Higher production income makes warfare less attractive and conflict less likely to occur, whereas higher resource income makes warfare more attractive as there is more to fight over. Indeed, cross-country evidence suggests a negative relationship between shocks in the growth of production income and the risk of civil war Fearon and Latin, 2003;Miguel, et al, 2004) and a positive relationship between resource income and conflict Fearon, 2005). The export share of primary commodities is the largest single influence on the risk of conflict and the effect is nonlinear .…”

Section: Natural Resource Wealth Induces Voracious Rent Seeking 12 Anmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?

Ploeg

2011

Journal of Economic Literature

1,408

177

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Abstract Are natural resources a "curse" or a "blessing"? The empirical evidence suggests either outcome is possible. The paper surveys a variety of hypotheses and supporting evidence for why some countries benefit and others lose from the presence of natural resources. These include that a resource bonanza induces appreciation of the real exchange rate, deindustrialization and bad growth prospects, and that these adverse effects are more severe in volatile countries with bad institutions and lack of rule of law, corruption, presidential democracies, and underdeveloped financial systems. Another hypothesis is that a resource boom reinforces rent grabbing and civil conflict especially if institutions are bad, induces corruption especially in non-democratic countries, and keeps in place bad policies. Finally, resource rich developing economies seem unable to successfully convert their depleting exhaustible resources into other productive assets. The survey also offers some welfare-based fiscal rules for harnessing resource windfalls in developed and developing economies. Terms of use: Documents inJEL-Code: C12, C13, E01, F43, K42, O41, Q30.

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Section: Natural Resource Wealth Induces Voracious Rent Seeking 12 Anmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?

Ploeg

2011

Journal of Economic Literature

1,408

177

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“…Miguel et al (2004) demonstrate how negative income shocks lead to higher levels of conflict. Dube and Vargas (2008) argue that lower wages increase conflict (lower international coffee prices lead to a negative shock to certain regions of Colombia leading to higher conflict levels).…”

Section: The Main Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Collier and Hoeffler (2004), Fearon and Laitin (2003), Miguel et al (2004), Ciccone (2010), Besley and Persson (2008). 3 Moreover, a lot of the land acquisition is taking place in the tribal areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Political Economy of the Maoist Conflict in India: An Empirical Analysis

Gomes

2015

World Development

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This paper contributes to a burgeoning literature that uses sub-national micro data to identify the causes of civil conflicts. In particular, we study the Maoist/Naxalite conflict in India by constructing a comprehensive district level database using conflict data from four different terrorism databases and combining it with socioeconomic and geography data from myriad sources. In addition to exploiting the within country regional heterogeneity, we use the micro structure of the data to construct group-level characteristics. Using data on 360 districts for 3 time periods, we find evidence on how land inequality and lower incomes are important for the Maoist conflict. Moreover, making use of the micro structure of the data we are able to ask whether exclusion of the low castes and tribes from the growth story of India is important. We find that while the income levels of the different ethnic groups are not important, the growth of incomes of Scheduled Tribes significantly decreases the intensity of the conflict. Finally, we show how historical property rights institutions from colonial times that go back centuries can affect present day conflict outcomes through their impact on economic outcomes, social relations and the political environment in the district.

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“…10 Instrumental approaches rely on identification of new, exogenous variables, known as instruments, that are correlated with the endogenous variable (barriers to entry, corruption, GDP), with the other covariates held constant at their means. However, the instruments cannot be correlated with the error term in the regression equations (see Heckman, 2008, Miguel, et. al., 2004, Acemoglu et.…”

Section: Trade Opennessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trapping the tigers: Regulation of market entry and the rule of law in SE Asia

Touchton

2015

The Social Science Journal

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Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach

Cited by 1,909 publications

References 23 publications

Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?

Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?

The Political Economy of the Maoist Conflict in India: An Empirical Analysis

Trapping the tigers: Regulation of market entry and the rule of law in SE Asia

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