Economic uncertainty and its impact on the Croatian economy

Sorić, Petar; Lolić, Ivana

doi:10.3326/pse.41.4.3

Cited by 40 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…On the one hand, the obtained results could be somehow indicating that highly heterogeneous survey responses regarding unemployment expectations do not necessarily indicate high employment uncertainty. This notion is also in line with recent evidence indicating that forecast disagreement and news-based indicators of uncertainty capture inherently different phenomena (Glas 2020;Krüger and Nolte 2016;Rich and Tracy 2021;Sorić and Lolić 2017). Regardless of that, the computed measure of disagreement indeed includes valuable information for the long-run state of unemployment, and this finding is very robust across countries.…”

Section: Empirical Analysissupporting

confidence: 88%

Employment Uncertainty a Year after the Irruption of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Sorić

Clavería

2021

SSRN Journal

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This paper examines the evolution of consumer uncertainty about unemployment one year after the irruption of the covid-19 pandemic in European countries. Since uncertainty is not directly observable, we use two alternative methods to directly approximate it. Both approaches are based on qualitative expectations elicited form the consumer survey conducted by the European Commission. On the one hand, following Dibiasi and Iselin ( 2019), we use the share of consumers unable to formalize expectations about unemployment (Knightian-type uncertainty). On the other hand, we use the geometric discrepancy indicator proposed by Claveria et al. (2019) to quantify the proportion of disagreement in business and consumer expectations. We have used information from 22 European countries. We find that both uncertainty measures covary. Although we observe marked differences across countries, in most cases the perception of employment uncertainty peaked before the outbreak of the crisis, plummeted during the first months of the lockdown, and started rising again since the past few months. When testing for cointegration with the unemployment rate, we find that the discrepancy indicator exhibits a long-term relationship with unemployment in most countries, while the Knightian uncertainty indicator shows a purely short-run relationship. The impact of both indicators on unemployment is characterised by considerable asymmetries, showing a more intense reaction to decreases in the level of uncertainty. While this finding may seem counterintuitive at first sight, it somehow reflects the fact that during recessive periods, the level of disagreement in the employment expectations of consumers drops considerably.

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Section: Empirical Analysissupporting

confidence: 88%

Employment Uncertainty a Year after the Irruption of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Sorić

Clavería

2021

SSRN Journal

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“…The arrival of the 2008 financial crisis has triggered a body of research dedicated to analyse the impact of uncertainty on the economy (Ajmi et al, 2015;Arslan et al, 2015;Atalla et al, 2016;Balcilar et al, 2017;Binder, 2017;Binding and Dibiasi, 2017;Bloom, 2014;Caggiano et al, 2014;Chua et al, 2011;Dovern, 2015;Fernández-Villaverde et al, 2015;Hartmann et al, 2017;Henzel and Rengel, 2017;Karnizova and Khan, 2015;Mitchell et al, 2007;Mokinski et al, 2015;Perić and Sorić, 2017;Sorić and Lolić, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Uncertainty: A Geometric Indicator of Discrepancy Among Experts’ Expectations

2018

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In this study we present a geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty. We design a positional indicator of disagreement among survey-based agents' expectations about the state of the economy. Previous dispersion-based uncertainty indicators derived from business and consumer surveys exclusively make use of the two extreme pieces of information: the percentage of respondents expecting a variable to rise and to fall. With the aim of also incorporating the information coming from the share of respondents expecting a variable to remain constant, we propose a geometrical framework and use a barycentric coordinate system to generate a measure of disagreement, referred to as a discrepancy indicator. We assess its performance both empirically and experimentally by comparing it to the standard deviation of the share of positive and negative responses. When applied in sixteen European countries, we find that both time-varying metrics co-evolve in most countries for expectations about the country's overall economic situation in the present, but not in the future. Additionally, we obtain their simulated sampling distributions and we find that the proposed indicator gravitates uniformly towards the three vertices of the simplex representing the three answering categories, as opposed to the standard deviation, which tends to overestimate the level of uncertainty as a result of ignoring the no-change responses. Consequently, we find evidence that the information coming from agents expecting a variable to remain constant has an effect on the measurement of disagreement.

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“…Smirnov and N.V. Kondrashov [8]. The dependence of economic activity on the uncertainty of fiscal and economic policy of the state is determined by J. Fernández-Villaverde, P. Guerrón-Quintana, K. Kuester and J. Rubio-Ramírez [9], W. Kim [10] and P. Sorić and I. Lolić [11]. Channels of factors which stimulate economic activity in developing countries are presented by J. Caballero, A. Fernández and J.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic activity of enterprises: methodical aspects of assessment

et al. 2019

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Sustainable development of entrepreneurial structures requires the reformation of existing tools and the search for new effective tools of their economic activity managing. The aim is substantiation of the methodological provisions for assessing the economic activity of enterprises and developing applied recommendations for its improvement. The methodology of the enterprises’ economic activity analysis is developed and the priority vectors of its intensification are identified in the research paper. The results of the research paper show that the determinant of national competitiveness and sustainable development is business decisions and technologies which determine the quantitative and qualitative renewal of individual enterprises potential and the combination of their business strategies with global development priorities. The proposed methodology of enterprises’ economic activity assessment and applied recommendations for its strengthening are scientific basis for the development and implementation of schemes for rapid economic growth.

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Economic uncertainty and its impact on the Croatian economy

Abstract: petar sorić, ivana lolić: economic uncertainty and its impact on the croatian economy public sector economics 41 (4) 443-477 (2017)

Cited by 40 publications

References 24 publications

Employment Uncertainty a Year after the Irruption of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Employment Uncertainty a Year after the Irruption of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Economic Uncertainty: A Geometric Indicator of Discrepancy Among Experts’ Expectations

Economic activity of enterprises: methodical aspects of assessment

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