Economics of Grassland Conversion to Cropland in the Prairie Pothole Region

Abstract

Much of the remaining grassland, particularly in North America, is privately owned, and its conversion to cultivated cropland is largely driven by economics. An understanding of why landowners convert grassland to cropland could facilitate more effective design of grassland-conservation programs. We built an empirical model of land-use change in the Prairie Pothole Region (north-central United States) to estimate the probability of grassland conversion to alternative agricultural land uses, including cultivated crops. Conversion was largely driven by landscape characteristics and the economic returns of alternative uses. Our estimate of the probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops (1.33% on average from 1979 to 1997) was higher than past estimates (0.4%). Our model also predicted that grassland-conversion probabilities will increase if agricultural commodity prices continue to follow the trends observed from 2001 to 2006 (0.93% probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops in 2006 to 1.5% in 2011). Thus, nearly 121,000 ha (300,000 acres) of grassland could be converted to cropland annually from 2006 to [corrected] 2011. Conversion probabilities, however, are spatially heterogeneous (range 0.2% to 3%), depending on characteristics of a parcel (e.g., soil quality and economic returns). Grassland parcels with relatively high-quality land for agricultural production are more likely to be converted to cultivated crops than lower-quality parcels and are more responsive to changes in the economic returns on alternative agricultural land uses (i.e., conversion probability increases by a larger magnitude for high-quality parcels when economics returns to alternative uses increase). Our results suggest that grassland conservation programs could be proactively targeted toward high-risk parcels by anticipating changes in economic returns, such as could occur if a new biofuel processing plant were to be built in an area.

Recent land use change in the Western Corn Belt threatens grasslands and wetlands

“…agriculture | Great Plains | land capability | land cover change H igh corn and soybean prices, prompted largely by demand for biofuel feedstocks, are driving one of the most important land cover/land use change (LCLUC) events in recent US history; the accelerated conversion of grassland to cropland in the US Corn Belt (1)(2)(3)(4)(5). Likely impacts of such conversion include a reduction in bird diversity across the region (6) and accruement of a significant carbon debt (7).…”

“…Meanwhile, regional-scale studies of grassland conversion have been based on agricultural production statistics aggregated at the county level (3,4), precluding largearea geospatial analysis of grassland conversion at farm to subcounty scales. Finally, most studies of grassland conversion (1)(2)(3) precede the doubling of corn and soybean prices between 2006 and 2011 (13), with the exception of one (4). From 2006 to 2008, the corn and soybean area harvested in the United States increased by more than 3.2 million ha (4).…”

Land-use change reduces habitat suitability for supporting managed honey bee colonies in the Northern Great Plains

“…pollinators. Rising commodity crop prices, increased subsidies for biofuels, such as corn-based ethanol and soy-based biodiesel, and reduction in US Farm Bill conservation programs have facilitated rapid land-use changes in the NGP (18)(19)(20). The US Energy and Security Act of 2007 calls for an annual production of 36 billion gallons of liquid biofuels by 2022 (21).…”

Quantifying the Environmental Benefits of Conserving Grassland

“…Most of the tallgrass prairie was converted to cropland in the early 19th century, and some estimates suggest that approximately half of the central shortgrass prairie remains (Landscope America, 2017;Smith, 1992). Recent research in various geographies in the U.S. indicates that conversion rates of remaining grassland habitats ranges from 1% to 5% per year (Claassen et al, 2011;Faber et al, 2012;Gage et al, 2016;Goldewijk, 2001;Lark et al, 2015;Rashford et al, 2011;Sylvester et al, 2013;Wright & Wimberley, 2013). While the majority of the most productive soils have already been plowed, new technologies and the profitability of crop production incentivizes landowners to convert intact grassland (hereafter "grassland") to cultivated cropland (hereafter "cropland") even on marginal soils (Nelson, personal communication, February 6, 2017).…”