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Much of the remaining grassland, particularly in North America, is privately owned, and its conversion to cultivated cropland is largely driven by economics. An understanding of why landowners convert grassland to cropland could facilitate more effective design of grassland-conservation programs. We built an empirical model of land-use change in the Prairie Pothole Region (north-central United States) to estimate the probability of grassland conversion to alternative agricultural land uses, including cultivated crops. Conversion was largely driven by landscape characteristics and the economic returns of alternative uses. Our estimate of the probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops (1.33% on average from 1979 to 1997) was higher than past estimates (0.4%). Our model also predicted that grassland-conversion probabilities will increase if agricultural commodity prices continue to follow the trends observed from 2001 to 2006 (0.93% probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops in 2006 to 1.5% in 2011). Thus, nearly 121,000 ha (300,000 acres) of grassland could be converted to cropland annually from 2006 to [corrected] 2011. Conversion probabilities, however, are spatially heterogeneous (range 0.2% to 3%), depending on characteristics of a parcel (e.g., soil quality and economic returns). Grassland parcels with relatively high-quality land for agricultural production are more likely to be converted to cultivated crops than lower-quality parcels and are more responsive to changes in the economic returns on alternative agricultural land uses (i.e., conversion probability increases by a larger magnitude for high-quality parcels when economics returns to alternative uses increase). Our results suggest that grassland conservation programs could be proactively targeted toward high-risk parcels by anticipating changes in economic returns, such as could occur if a new biofuel processing plant were to be built in an area.

a b s t r a c tThe inter-mountain west is one of the most highly urbanized and rapidly growing regions in the United States. Conservation easements are one common tool used to protect rural and agricultural land from urban development. This paper examines the attitudinal and demographic characteristics of agricultural landowners to predict adoption of conservation easements. The study has two primary objectives: (1) to broaden the literature on sense of place and place attachment by including a measure of economic dependence as one dimension, and (2) to examine the relation of this dimension with attitudes towards land trusts and participation in conservation easements. Agricultural landowners (N = 2266) in Colorado and Wyoming were surveyed about their sense of place for their land, their attitudes towards land trusts, and perceived need for land conservation. Factor analysis of 12 measures of sense of place indicated that place identity, conservation ethic, and economic dependence ere distinct dimensions of sense of place among agricultural landowners. Logistic regression analyses revealed that economic dependence had a significant and negative relation with landowner's trust of and trusts and placement of a conservation easement on agricultural land, whereas a conservation ethic and spiritual attachment are positively related. Two main implications for land trusts are that time spent contacting landowners is time well spent and intake questionnaires could be used to screen and owners for both a conservation ethic and a sense of economic dependence providing information hat might improve the possibility of reaching an easement agreement.

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