Economy-wide impact of drought induced productivity losses

Kilimani, Nicholas; Heerden, Jan van; Bohlmann, Heinrich R.; Roos, Louise

doi:10.1108/dpm-05-2018-0155

Cited by 27 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…These results suggest that other external shocks such as an increase in world prices of fossil fuel, an increase in world prices of agricultural inputs, and political unrest would worsen the amplitude of the projected effects. As far as sectoral exports are concerned, the decline is similar to that of Kilimani et al [34], who analyzed the economy-wide impact of drought-induced productivity losses in Uganda. With regard to the increase in sectoral imports, Juana et al [24] also showed an increase in imports in South Africa due to water reduction scenarios.…”

Section: Economic Sectoral Effects Of Climate Changesupporting

confidence: 62%

Economy-Wide Effects of Climate Change in Benin: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

et al. 2019

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This research analyzes the economic effects of climate change-induced crop yield losses in Benin. As agriculture is a large sector in Benin, the climate change-induced crop yield losses are expected to affect the entire economy as well as household welfare in both rural and urban areas. The paper applies a dynamic general equilibrium model and simulates productivity shocks in the agricultural sector derived from climate change scenarios for Benin. The findings show that climate change-induced crop yield losses reduce domestic agricultural outputs by 4.4% and the nonagricultural output by 0.9% on average by 2025. While export supply decrease by 25.5%, import demand increases by 4.9% on average by 2025. As price of labour and capital decline, household income drop for all household groups by 2.5% on average. Ultimately, household welfare decline for all household groups by 2.7% on average. Rural and particularly poor households are projected to experience the worst adverse effects of climate change-induced crop yield losses. The results show that without adaptive strategies to cope with climate change, economic growth and household welfare will decline even further by 2035 and 2045. Subsequently, the paper suggests that adaptation strategies are needed not only at the national level to overcome the projected negative effects on macroeconomic indicators, but also at household level to enhance the adaptative capacity of households, especially the poor households living in rural areas.In Benin, previous studies showed that yields of major food crops are likely to decline with implications for food security, farm incomes, and household welfare [8,9]. The high potential impact of climate change in Benin is due to the size of the agricultural sector in the economy. As of 2016, agriculture accounts for 23% of the Benin national GDP, 83% of total merchandise exports, and 41% of total employment [10]. Hence, the disruptive effects of climate change in the agricultural sector are felt beyond that sector in the entire economy. There are both direct and indirect effects of climate change on the agricultural sector. Direct effects include changes in agricultural outputs. Indirect effects encompass commodity and factor price changes affecting ultimately household incomes and expenditures.In this paper, the economy-wide implications of climate change in Benin are analyzed and quantified. While vulnerability and adaptation aspects of climate change have been studied in Benin [11][12][13], little is known about its economy-wide effects. In order to capture these effects, the study employs a single-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The CGE framework allows to examine the interdependent links between supply and demand of agricultural products, on the one hand, and between agricultural markets and the rest of the economy, on the other hand [14]. The remainder of this paper is structured as follows: Section 2 presents the existing literature on the economy-wide effects of climate change, while Section 3 describes the ...

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Section: Economic Sectoral Effects Of Climate Changesupporting

confidence: 62%

Economy-Wide Effects of Climate Change in Benin: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

et al. 2019

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“…) 59 People on ART may also forgo hospital appointments, as they search for clean water for themselves and their livestock, while insufficient and low water quality (driven by drought) may exacerbate poor economic conditions that individuals, communities, farmers, herders and countries face in general. 8,43,46,62,95,99 Insufficient water impacts overall food production, increases (government) expenditure on food and could exacerbate morbidity. Such fiscal burdens on the economy linked to food and water could have ripple effects on expenditure on adequate water supply to poor drought-stricken (rural) communities where many HIV positive individuals reside.…”

Section: Results: a Systems Understanding Of The Sensitivity Of Art Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring linkages between drought and HIV treatment adherence in Africa: A Systematic Review

Orievulu

Ayeb‐Karlsson

Ngema

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Climate change is directly and indirectly linked to human health, including through access to treatment and care. Our systematic review presents a systems understanding of the nexus between drought and antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence in HIV-positive individuals in the African setting. Narrative synthesis of 111 studies retrieved from Web of Science, PubMed/Medline, and PsycINFO suggests that economic and livelihoods conditions, comorbidities and ART regimens, human mobility, and psycho-behavioural dispositions and support systems interact in complex ways in the drought-ART adherence nexus in Africa. Economic and livelihood-related challenges appear to impose the strongest impact on human interactions, actions and systems that culminate in non-adherence. Indeed, the complex pathways identified by our systems approach emphasise the need for more integrated research approaches to understanding this phenomenon and develop interventions.

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“…The CGE model is considered an effective tool to evaluate the economic impacts of water policy measures (Faust et al, 2015). This model is a theoretically consistent mathematical representation of an economy, and it consists of equations describing producer demands for intermediate inputs and primary factors; producer supplies of goods and services; consumer demands for goods and services; market‐clearing conditions for commodities and primary factors; and numerous macroeconomic variables and price indices (Banerjee et al, 2016; Kilimani et al, 2018; Letsoalo et al, 2007).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustaining environmental flows in water‐deficient rivers via inter‐basin hydropower transfer

Gao

Liu

Sun

et al. 2021

Hydrological Processes

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In water-deficient rivers, environmental flows (e-flows) are usually sustained via interbasin water transfer projects from water-sufficient rivers, but these projects incur tremendous costs and may lead to many negative ecological effects, such as ecological invasion. This research proposed to transfer hydropower instead of water from watersufficient rivers, because hydropower could substitute for water to promote economic development and reduce water withdrawal from water-deficient rivers (conserved water). In addition, based on the analysis of eco-hydrological processes, the flow regime alteration plays an important role in restoring riverine ecosystem. With the goal of minimum flow regime alternation, we set up two scenarios to distribute the annual conserved water, and determined the optimal amount of transferred hydropower and the optimal use of conserved water, which could effectively sustain the e-flows. Accordingly, this paper established a computable general equilibrium model to analyse the substitution of hydropower for water in a water-deficient river basin, and determined the water withdrawal volume that could be reduced. We adopted a range-ofvariability approach to measure the degree of flow regime alteration, and optimized the flow regime management scheme. The Luanhe River Basin was adopted as a study case. The results showed that: the water-hydropower equivalent decreased as the transferred hydropower into the Luanhe River Basin increased; a transferred hydropower amount of 22.46 kWh/s, equivalent to 18.30 m 3 /s conserved water, was optimal for the river basin; the conserved water should be distributed to the Luanhe River in the proportions of 0.55:0.1:0.35 during the wet, normal and dry seasons, respectively, which is the optimal scheme to sustain the hydrological processes of the river.

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Economy-wide impact of drought induced productivity losses

Cited by 27 publications

References 31 publications

Economy-Wide Effects of Climate Change in Benin: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

Economy-Wide Effects of Climate Change in Benin: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

Exploring linkages between drought and HIV treatment adherence in Africa: A Systematic Review

Sustaining environmental flows in water‐deficient rivers via inter‐basin hydropower transfer

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