Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate how a drought which initially affects agricultural productivity can ultimately affect an entire economy. The study aims to assess the magnitude of the impact as well as highlight key issues that can inform the implementation of drought mitigation programmes. Design/methodology/approach The paper presents the literature on the economic impact of drought and uses a computable general equilibrium model where productivity shocks are applied to the agricultural industries following which the resulting impacts on the rest of the sectors of the economy are obtained. Findings The findings show that the key macroeconomic variables, namely, real GDP, industry output, employment, the trade balance and household consumption are negatively affected by the drought shock. Practical implications The results point to the fact that in the absence of drought mitigation mechanisms, the occurrence of even a short drought as modelled in this paper can impose substantial socioeconomic losses. Originality/value First, a general equilibrium framework which uses climate and economic data when evaluating the social-economic impacts of drought is used. Most studies employ partial equilibrium analysis in analysing drought impacts on specific sectors or crops within a limited geographical area. Others use global or multi-regional models which impose averages on the observed impacts. The current study provides valuable insights on the potential damage which droughts can impose on a single economy. This gives a basis for decision making to support drought mitigation policies and programmes.
This paper examines the existence of long memory in daily stock market returns from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS)
The double dividend hypothesis contends that environmental taxes have the potential to yield multiple benefits for the economy. However, empirical evidence of the potential impacts of environmental taxation in developing countries is still limited. This paper seeks to contribute to the literature by exploring the impact of a water tax in a developing country context, with Uganda as a case study. Policy makers in Uganda are exploring ways of raising revenue by taxing environmental goods such as water. Whereas their primary focus is to raise revenue, we demonstrate how taxes on environmental goods can yield other benefits beyond addressing a country's fiscal needs. This study employs a computable general equilibrium model to shed light on the impact of a water tax policy when a tax is accompanied by a recycling scheme of the same magnitude. We seek to establish whether taxation and recycling can induce more growth, employment and industry output. The results show that a mechanism which leaves a neutral fiscal balance yields dividends for the economy. In other words, whatever the degree of regressivity resulting from the environmental tax, it is possible to design a recycling scheme that renders the tax policy to be beneficial to the economy.
This paper uses the system of economic and environmental accounting for water to demonstrate how the water sector interacts with the social-economic sectors of the economy. Furthermore, it reviews the existing institutional and policy framework in Uganda, and proposes an analytical framework which can be used to provide sound intersectoral planning in order to achieve sustainable water resource use. The proposed framework also articulates how outcomes of water policies and social-economic policies can be analyzed. In Uganda, the uneven distribution of water resources both in space and time, poses constraints to economic activity particularly in the water-scarce regions of the country. The problem is being exacerbated by the increasingly erratic rainfall and rising temperatures. The accounting results show that the current level of water use within the economy is less than the available quantity. In this regard, there is room for the development of mechanisms to increase its utilization. This would serve to mitigate the scarcity especially of water for production which primarily emanates from climate variability. This in turn affects the performance of the economy, as key sectors such as agriculture are rainfall-dependent.
Based on a synthesis of the existing academic and policy literature, this article undertakes a situational analysis of youth employment in developing countries. The article analyses existing interventions across sectors and provides insights into how they can be harnessed to generate employment opportunities, citing examples of specific projects. This has been undertaken with a view to bringing to light interventions that have been proven to work, as well as demonstrating the sources of failure. Finally, the article distils key emerging issues related to human capital and the business environment. These have been shown to be binding constraints to higher productivity, and can be used as inputs to shape policy discourse around youth employment.
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