BookAddressing Tipping Points for a Precarious Future This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/162999
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Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Data availableTypeset by Keystroke, Station Road, Codsall, Wolverhampton Printed in Great Britain by T.J. International, Padstow, Cornwall ISBN 978-0-726553-6 For our next generation who will live through what we create for them James, Zoë, Joseph, Esther, Edward and Sammy
Contents
List of figures and tables xi
Foreword by Sir Crispin Tickell xiiiPreface xv
Acknowledgements xix
Notes on contributors xxiPART 1 Tipping points and critical thresholds 1
Metaphors and systemic change 3 TIM O'RIORDAN, TIM LENTON, AND IAN CHRISTIEPART 2 Earth system tipping points 21 One of the best demonstrations of tipping points is in the behaviour of ecosystems. Within the infinite complexity of living systems in which different organisms depend on each other, one break in the chain or tipping point can bring rapid change to the others linked within it. For some this means disaster; for others it means rapid, perhaps favourable, change within a new chain. This is part of the phenomenon of life.
Tipping elements from a global perspective 23We can see this in the history of the human animal. Tribes, cities, and societies can rapidly crash or flourish. As ever, the tipping point could not have been foreseen. Usually it was a combination of unusual circumstances. Changes in patterns of rainfall came together with social and economic difficulties to bring about the collapse of classic Maya society. The Black Death coincided with the beginnings of the Little Ice Age to transform mediaeval society. A new merchant elite was able to tip over the monarchies of King Charles I and later King James II, and thereby create the circumstances of the industrial revolution in the following century.We are certainly in turbulent times today. Our current epoch has been labelled 'the Anthropocene' by many geologists: it marks the period since the industrial revolution in which the human species has vastly increased its numbers; exploited the natural, often irreplaceable resources of the Earth; upset longstanding ecosystems, thereby destroying countless other species; and changed the chemistry of the land, sea, and air of the Earth in ways we have yet to understand. For example, we can observe the current xiii destabilization of climate with prospects for global warming, but can only ...