Ecosystem services dynamics towards SDGs in the Belt and Road Initiative cities

Abstract

In the unprecedented global changes, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have become a common beacon for all countries’ development worldwide. Systemic analysis of the ecosystem services (ESs) changes during rapid urbanization can provide helpful information for ecosystem management toward the 2030 SDGs. However, existing research seldom focuses on simulating future scenarios of SDG-oriented urbanization and associated ESs changes. We proposed three 2030 SDGs-related urbanization scenarios: the baseline development scenario (BDS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), and rapid urbanization scenario (RUS). We further evaluated the three ESs component changes and synergies, including habitat quality (HQ), carbon storage (CS), and water yield (WY) till 2030, using the cases of 67 capital cities in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Region. Results reveal that most cities will face ESs loss from 2020 to 2030. EPS can effectively alleviate the ESs loss and assist the ESs increment. The correlations between ESs components vary in the degree among the three scenarios. HQ and CS have a robust synergetic relationship in most cities. The correlations between CS and WY, and HQ and WY are mostly synergetic except for a few western Asian cities. The EPS can stabilize the ecosystem structure and facilitate SDG-oriented development. The findings help achieve sustainable urbanization by conserving ESs guided by the SDGs.