Effect of accurate forecasts on length of hospital stay of psychiatric patients.

Abstract

Forecasts of length of hospital stay (prognosis) for half of 200 male consecutive psychiatric patients resulted in no change in average hospital stay as compared to alternately chosen controls. Short-stay predicted patients left later and long-stay patients left earlier than controls. Diagnosis as reflected in prognosis alone was not generally effective in reducing length of hospital stay. Prediction decreased in accuracy when it was made known at the outset of treatment. Expectancy was not fulfilled in spite of an opportunity for self-fulfilling prophecy.

Use of demographic and clinical characteristics in predicting length of psychiatric hospital stay: A final evaluation.

“…Consequently, it makes possible an earlier start on appropriate treatment and release for short-stay patients and the prompt beginning of appropriate treatment for long-stay patients. This would result in the more effective use of hospital facilities and staff (Anker, 1961;Dunham & Meltzer, 1946;Johnston & McNeil, 1964;McNeil, Johnston, & Aspromonte, 1970). The importance of a predictive index of length of hospital stay is also indicated in its use as an evaluative measure of patient program interaction, in addition to individual patient characteristics (Becker, 1975).…”