Data available on 316 psychiatric patients, soon after admission to a hospital, were used in a multiple regression formula and in less formal statistical techniques to predict length of stay. Demographic and MMPI predictors made possible early identification of long stay patients at greater than base rate frequency. The asymptote of prediction was reached when 6 of 24 variables had been included, suggesting that further search in the area would be redundant. Prediction with the 5 prediction schema was stable on a crossvalidation sample of 3S2.

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Forecasts of length of hospital stay (prognosis) for half of 200 male consecutive psychiatric patients resulted in no change in average hospital stay as compared to alternately chosen controls. Short-stay predicted patients left later and long-stay patients left earlier than controls. Diagnosis as reflected in prognosis alone was not generally effective in reducing length of hospital stay. Prediction decreased in accuracy when it was made known at the outset of treatment. Expectancy was not fulfilled in spite of an opportunity for self-fulfilling prophecy.

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