Statistical versus clinical prediction: Length of neuropsychiatric hospital stay.

Johnston, Roy; McNeal, Benjamin F.

doi:10.1037/h0020105

Cited by 22 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…This article is intended solely for the personal use of the individual user and is not to be disseminated broadly. Oskamp, 1962;Walters etal., 1988), neuropsychological testing data (Goldberg, 1959;Goldstein, Deysach, & Kleinknecht, 1973;Heaton, Smith, Lehman, & Vogt, 1978;Leli & Filskov, 1981Robiner, 1978), and extensive data (i.e., all of the data that staff members generally have available on a psychiatric inpatient unit; Johnston & McNeal, 1967).…”

Section: Clinicians Versus Graduate Studentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Clinical judgment, clinical training, and professional experience.

Garb¹

1989

Psychological Bulletin

262

169

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Reviews studies on training, experience, and clinical judgment. The results on the validity of judgments generally fail to support the value of on-the-job experience in mental health fields. The validity results do provide limited support for the value of training. Other results suggest that experienced clinicians are better than less experienced judges at knowing which of their judgments are likely to be correct and which are likely to be wrong. Reasons why clinicians have trouble learning from experience are given. Recommendations are made for improving training and clinical practice.

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Section: Clinicians Versus Graduate Studentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Clinical judgment, clinical training, and professional experience.

Garb¹

1989

Psychological Bulletin

262

169

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“…Studies of the accuracy of these sorts of judgments have yielded rather discouraging conclusions. For example, one surprising finding-that the amount of professional training and experience of the judge does not relate to his judgmental accuracy -has appeared in a number of studies (e.g., Goldberg, 1959;Hiler & Nesvig, 1965;Johnston & McNeal, 1967;Levy & Ulman, 1967;Luft, 1950;Oskamp, 1962Oskamp, , 1967Schaeffer, 1964;Silverman, 1959;Strieker, 1967), Equally disheartening, there is now a host of studies demonstrating that the amount of information available to the judge is not related to the accuracy of his resulting inferences (e.g., Borke & Fiske, 1957;Giedt, 1955;Golden, 1964;Grant, Ives, & Ranzoni, 1952;Grigg, 1958;Hunt & Walker, 1966;Jones, 1959;Kostlan, 1954;Luft, 1951;Marks, 1961;Schwartz, 1967;Sines, 1959;Soskin, 1959;Winch & More, 1956). Let us look at Oskamp's (1965) study as one example of some of these findings.…”

Section: The Focus On Accuracymentioning

confidence: 99%

Simple models or simple processes? Some research on clinical judgments.

Goldberg¹

1968

American Psychologist

553

261

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I MAGINE the following situation: You are sitting unobserved in a physician's office watching a week of his professional activities. During the course of the week, some 100 patients come to his office, each telling him of his symptoms, which you record; after each patient leaves the office, and any requested laboratory findings have arrived, the physician records his diagnosis for that patient. At the end of the week you have collected a set of 100 symptom configurations, one for each patient, and a set of 100 corresponding diagnoses.Alternatively, you are sitting unobserved in the office of a personnel officer of a large manufacturing concern. He has 100 folders on his desk, each containing information about a different applicant for SO sales positions with his company. He spends his week carefully looking through the application materials for each applicant-examining the applicant's test scores, the ratings made by each of the company's three initial interviewers, and the reference forms from each of the applicant's past employers. When he has completed examining the materials for each applicant in turn, he records his selection decision. At the end of the week each

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“…The personality feature most associated with inability or unwillingness to marry is social isolation or withdrawal. Studies that reported this feature as a poor prognostic indicator include Jenkins, Stauffacher, andHester (1959 andMcNeal (1967).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of improvement in coping pathology in hospitalized psychiatric patients: A replication study.

Jacobs

Muller²,

Anderson³

et al. 1973

Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology

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A replication study was undertaken to predict which patients would modify their coping pathology during psychiatric hospitalization and which would not. A total of 65 patients were assessed at the time of admission and again at discharge by multiple observers. The battery of seven predictor scales used measured concepts of premorbid adjustment (expressed both positively and negatively as ego strength and previous history of failure), level of manifest distress at intake, and negative expectations regarding psychotherapy. The multiple correlation found was .57, which is significantly greater than zero at the .005 level of confidence. However, three of the seven scales did not contribute to accuracy of prediction. Among these zero-order correlations was the expectancy score. Overall, the predictors of improvement seemed to generate an index of hope based on previous success and openness to change.In previous articles we have described attempts to predict outcome in a psychiatric open-ward setting. Among the factors used as determinants of improvement were impulse control pathology (Jacobs, Muller, Skinner, Anderson, Pugatch, & Spilken, 1971), overall profile of maladaptive coping (Jacobs, Muller, Skinner, Anderson, & Spilken, 1971), premorbid adjustment, level of manifest distress at the time of admission, and expectations regarding psychotherapy (Jacobs, Muller, Anderson, & Skinner, 1972). Style of coping pathology was later found to be an accurate predictor specific for certain diagnostic classifications (such as depressives), whereas the other factors cited seemed to have more general applicability.This paper is a report of a replication study involving multiple predictors of outcome applicable across diagnostic categories. Following the model of Luborsky, Chandler, Auerbach, Cohen, and Bachrach (1971), we

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Statistical versus clinical prediction: Length of neuropsychiatric hospital stay.

Cited by 22 publications

References 14 publications

Clinical judgment, clinical training, and professional experience.

Clinical judgment, clinical training, and professional experience.

Simple models or simple processes? Some research on clinical judgments.

Prediction of improvement in coping pathology in hospitalized psychiatric patients: A replication study.

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