Effect of Carbon Dioxide Concentration on Cereal Yield in Sudan

Abstract

To estimate the long-term effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission on cereal yield in Sudan, we employed an autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) bound test for cointegration analysis. The ARDL results reveal evidence of cointegration between the dependent variable (cereals yield) and two independent variables (CO2 emission) and agricultural GDP. The estimation results of the error correction model indicate that change in CO2 has a positive and significant impact on the cereal yield in the long and short terms, as 1% increase in CO2 leads to a cereal yield increase by 3% in the short term and by 0.7% in the long term. This result adds two important findings to the existing literature: First, the positive impact of CO2 on cereal yield in Sudan supports previous research findings in other countries of warm and arid climates. Second, the effect of CO2 on cereal yield differs from short to long term, as our finding indicates that CO2 has a greater positive effect in the short term compared to that in the long term, implying that the effect of CO2 on cereal yields is not linear, as commonly perceived, but it decreases as time duration extends to longer periods. This may be due to the CO2 effect on global warming that emanates from cumulative CO2 concentration, which leaves a disproportionate impact on crops over time.

Climate change and rice production in India: role of ecological and carbon footprint

“…Moreover, proper utilization of natural resources such as land, cropland, water facilities will reduce the adverse impact of temperature hikes, drought, flood and greenhouse gas emissions, creating space for ecological balance, which ultimately have positive impacts on rice production in India. This outcome corroborates with the existing studies (Loum and Fogarassy, 2015; Onour, 2019; Chandio et al , 2020a; Ahsan et al , 2020; Demirhan, 2020; Baig et al , 2020).…”

“…He found that cereal production was enhanced by rainfall but plunged by temperature. Onour (2019) investigated the impact of CO 2 on cereal crops and found a negative effect in Sudan. Using the ARDL model, the author found CO 2 emissions reducing cereal production.…”

Impact of climate change on cereal production: evidence from lower-middle-income countries

“…This is because the crop plants with increased CO 2 levels may use more water e ciently and effectively, thereby increasing the cereals production in lower-middle-income countries. This nding is consistent with studies in the literature (Loum and Fogarassy, 2015;Onour, 2019;Chandio et al, 2020a;Ahsan et al, 2019;Demirhan, 2020;Baig et al, 2020) Similarly, the coe cient of the land under cereal production is found as positive, with one percent level of signi cance. This signi es that LCP has a positive effect on CP in LMI countries.…”

“…Most of the researchers have used temperature and rainfall as a proxy for climate change. Many of the studies are country-speci c (Dumrul and Kilicarslan, 2017;Zaied and Zouabi, 2015;Praveen and Sharma, 2019b;Attiaoui and Boufateh, 2019;Onour, 2019;Chandio et al, 2020a;Chandio et al, 2020bAhsan et al, 2019. It is also found that there is a limited number of studies on the relationship between climate change and cereal production.…”

“…In the literature, most of the studies have used a time-series approach to study the impact of climate change on agricultural crops production (Rahim and Puay, 2017;Zaied and Zouabi, 2015;Dumrul and Kilicarslan, 2017;Onour, 2019). Some researchers have used the panel data approach to analyze the effect of climate change variables on agriculture (Loum and Fogarassy, 2015;Sarker et al, 2014;Ali et al, 2017;Amin et al 2015).…”