Effect of Climate Change on Runoff Generation: Application to Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia

Wagesho, Negash; Jain, Manoj; Goel, N. K.

doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000647

Cited by 31 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Other models that are partly deterministic (Saliha, Awulachew, Cullmann, & Horlacher, ) have used a Kohonen neural network and WaSiM‐ETH to estimate flow in ungauged basins. According to these models, future discharge in Ethiopia will either increase (Legesse, Vallet‐Coulomb, & Gasse, ), remain the same (Wagesho, Jain, & Goel, ), or cannot be determined (Setegn et al, ). These models also found that installing SWCP and better management will greatly decrease erosion, which in the case of SWAT can be directly related to the conservation practice factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (Betrie et al, ; Tesfahunegn, Vlek, & Tamene, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to these models, future discharge in Ethiopia will either increase (Legesse, Vallet-Coulomb, & Gasse, 2003), remain the same (Wagesho, Jain, & Goel, 2012), or cannot be determined (Setegn et al, 2011). These models also found that installing SWCP and better (Tilahun, Mukundan, et al, 2013b) management will greatly decrease erosion, which in the case of SWAT can be directly related to the conservation practice factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (Betrie et al, 2011;Tesfahunegn, Vlek, & Tamene, 2012).…”

Section: Modeling Approaches: Available Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling discharge and sediment concentrations after landscape interventions in a humid monsoon climate: The Anjeni watershed in the highlands of Ethiopia

et al. 2017

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Increasing population and intensification of agriculture increase erosion rates and often result in severe land degradation and sedimentation of reservoirs. Finding effective management practices to counteract the increasing sediment load is becoming increasingly urgent especially in the Ethiopian highlands where the construction of the hydroelectric Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile is underway. In this paper, we examine the results of 9 years of a watershed experiment in which discharge and sediment losses were observed in the 113 ha Anjeni watershed of the Blue Nile Basin. The study period encompasses conditions before, during, and after the installation of graded Fanya‐Juu (“throw uphill” bunds) soil and water conservation practices (SWCP), which had the ultimate goal of creating terraces. We use a saturation‐excess runoff model named the parameter‐efficient distributed model as a mathematical construct to relate rainfall with discharge and sediment losses at the outlet. The parameter‐efficient distributed model is based on landscape units in which the excess rainfall becomes direct runoff or infiltrates based on topographic position or hardpan characteristics. Deviations in this rainfall–discharge–sediment loss relationship are ascribed to the changes in infiltration characteristics caused by SWCPs on the hillslopes. With this technique, we found that in the Anjeni basin, the Fanya‐Juu SWCPs are only effective in increasing the infiltration and thereby reducing the direct runoff and sediment concentrations in the first 5 years. At the end of the 9‐year observation period, the direct runoff and sediment concentrations were barely reduced compared to the levels before SWCP were installed. In addition, we found that the model structure based on landscape units was able to represent the varying runoff and erosion processes during the 9 years well by varying mainly the portion of degraded land (and thereby representing the effectiveness of the Fanya‐Juu to reduce runoff by increasing infiltration).

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Modeling Approaches: Available Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling discharge and sediment concentrations after landscape interventions in a humid monsoon climate: The Anjeni watershed in the highlands of Ethiopia

et al. 2017

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“…Global climate models (GCMs) are complex computer programs that simulate the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere and oceans to obtain projections of temperature and other meteorological variables under various assumptions about the composition of the atmosphere and other influences such as variations in solar energy (Smith et al 2009). Some researcher use the outputs of GCMs to estimate possible effects of global climate change on large river basin by using climate scenarios generated as inputs in eco-hydrological models (Yang et al 2003;Lauri et al 2012;Zhang and Cai 2013;Wagesho et al 2013;Hidalgo et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-model ensemble simulation and projection in the climate change in the Mekong River Basin. Part I: temperature

Huang

Wang

et al. 2014

Environ Monit Assess

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This paper evaluates the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating annual and decadal temperature in the Mekong River Basin from 1950 to 2005. By use of Bayesian multi-model averaging method, the future projection of temperature variation under different scenarios are also analyzed. The results show, the performances of climate model are more accurate in space than time, the model can catch the warming characteristics in the Mekong river Basin, but the accuracy of simulation is not good enough. Bayesian multi-model averaging method can improve the annual and decadal temperature simulation when compared to a single result. The projected temperature in Mekong River will increase by 0.88 °C/100 year, 2.15 °C/100 year and 4.96 °C/100 year for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, over the twenty-first century. The findings will be beneficial for local people and policy-maker to formulate regional strategies against the potential menaces of warming scenarios.

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“…The Central Rift Valley (CRV) Lakes Basin of Ethiopia, located in the eastern part of the country, has experienced considerable seasonal and annual rainfall variability, with a prominent increase in temperature [19]. Some studies have already documented the hydroclimate conditions and climate change impacts in the CRV, including partially in the Ziway Basin (Meki and Katar sub-basins, the two major sub-basins draining into the Ziway Lake) [20,21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall over Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia

et al. 2021

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Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. This study assessed the historical (1983–2005) and future (2026–2100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. The CMIP5 datasets were statistically downscaled by using the climate model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) tool and bias corrected using the distribution mapping method available in the CMhyd tool. The performance of simulated rainfall, Tmax, and Tmin of the CMIP5 models were statistically evaluated using observation datasets at eleven stations. The results showed that the selected CMIP5 models can reasonably simulate the monthly rainfall, Tmax, and Tmin at the majority of the stations. Modified Mann–Kendall trend test were applied to estimate the trends of annual rainfall, Tmax, and Tmin in the historical and future periods. We found that rainfall experienced no clear trends, while Tmax, and Tmin showed consistently significant increasing trends under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. However, the warming is expected to be greater under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 by the end of the 21st century, resulting in an increasing trend of Tmax and Tmin at all stations. The greatest warming occurred in the central part of the basin, with statistically significant increases largely seen by the end of the 21st century, which is expected to exacerbate the evapotranspiration demand of the area that could negatively affect the freshwater availability within the basin. This study increases our understanding of historic trends and projected future change effects on rainfall- and evapotranspiration-related climate variables, which can be used to inform adaptive water resource management strategies.

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Effect of Climate Change on Runoff Generation: Application to Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia

Cited by 31 publications

References 44 publications

Modeling discharge and sediment concentrations after landscape interventions in a humid monsoon climate: The Anjeni watershed in the highlands of Ethiopia

Modeling discharge and sediment concentrations after landscape interventions in a humid monsoon climate: The Anjeni watershed in the highlands of Ethiopia

Multi-model ensemble simulation and projection in the climate change in the Mekong River Basin. Part I: temperature

Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall over Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia

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