Effect of climate warming on seedling growth and biomass accumulation of <i>Acacia modesta</i> and <i>Olea ferruginea</i> in a subtropical scrub forest of Pakistan

Ghafoor, Gul Zareen; Sharif, Faiza; Khan, Amin U.; Shahid, Memuna Ghafoor; Siddiq, Zafar; Shahzad, Laila

doi:10.1080/11956860.2021.1958536

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…In a recent study investigating the future predictions for the spread of invasive species under the influence of climate change in South Africa, Bezeng et al (2017) discovered a range reduction for more than 80 species. Our predicted model for the future distribution of this species corresponds with the results of Ghafoor et al (2021), which experimentally established the reduced seed germination and vegetative growth in Olea europaea subsp. cuspidate, and predicted that climate change will significantly influence olive ecophysiology, leading to species composition changes and shifting distribution (Brito et al, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 80%

Ensemble modeling to predict the impact of future climate change on the global distribution of Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata

Khan

Verma

2022

Front. For. Glob. Change

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Climate change is one of the significant factors influencing global species redistribution. As a result, a better understanding of the species' possible range change in future climate conditions is needed. Therefore, this study compiles global geographic occurrence data of a wild olive sub-species, Olea europaea subsp. cuspidate, and projected potential distribution models in current and future climate scenarios. This study using ensemble modeling predicted that the species will undergo a significant decrease in habitat suitability under future climatic conditions with a contraction ranging from ca. 41 and 42% under RCP4.5 2050 and to about 56 and 61% under RCP8.5 2070 for committee averaging and weighted mean, respectively. More specifically, there will be a decrease in habitat suitability in regions of the southeastern part of the United States in North America; coastal regions in South America; coastal regions in the majority of eastern Africa; coastal parts of Spain, France, Italy, and Greece in Europe; coastal parts of Yemen and Saudi Arabia; the southeastern parts of Pakistan and the southern part of China in Asia; and southwestern and eastern parts of Australia when compared to current habitat suitability. The results of this ensemble modeling could be extremely valuable in identifying cultivation hotspots for the effective restoration and protection of this olive lineage under future climatic conditions.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 80%

Ensemble modeling to predict the impact of future climate change on the global distribution of Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata

Khan

Verma

2022

Front. For. Glob. Change

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“…But, coupled with the elevated CO 2 levels, future warming and change in precipitation could limit the stem and root growth with increase in soil respiration 36 . Ghafoor et al 37 reported significant reduction in the regeneration rate and growth of A. modesta and O. ferruginea in HM subtropical forest under short term climate warming. Considering the current pace of global warming, where already 1 °C rise in temperature has been observed over the last 40 years in Pakistan, decrease in precipitation in the Soan valley and future warmer climate with elevated CO 2 concentration might result in decrease in ecosystem productivity 38,39 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Carbon storage was found comparatively high at the sites of evergreen species than where deciduous species is distributed in the HM forest, whereas least carbon storage in the non-vegetated classes in the base and predicted year. The historical trend in the relative area coverage of both species during 2007-2019 and predicted LULC presented O. ferruginea dominating the A. modesta suggesting that under a future warmer climate the evergreen species will have more potential in mitigating climate change 37 . This analysis is also helpful in identifying areas of potential carbon storage and where to implement management interventions to increase the service of tree carbon sequestration.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the impact of land use land cover change on regulatory ecosystem services of subtropical scrub forest, Soan Valley Pakistan

Ghafoor

Sharif

Shahid

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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This study investigated the effect of land use land cover (LULC) changes on carbon sequestration in the Hayat-ul-Mir subtropical scrub reserve forest, Pakistan. Supervised maximum likelihood classification of Landsat satellite imagery was done to assess spatio-temporal changes in LULC during 2007, 2013 and 2019. The CA–Markov model was used to simulate LULC of 2030. Spatial LULC data and carbon pools data was processed in Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) carbon model to investigate the effect of LULC on future carbon dynamics. The analysis revealed increase in cover of A. modesta and O. ferruginea and decrease in agriculture, built up and barren area of forest during 2007–2019 and 2030. The analysis also showed that the forest would additionally sequester 111 Mg C with an overall Net Present Value of $4112.05 in year 2030. The analysis revealed LULC changes on 25% area with increase and decrease in the value of ecosystem service (at some location) from carbon storage and loss as CO2 emissions respectively depending on the type of LULC converted. The study is helpful in identifying areas of potential carbon sequestration to maximize net benefits from management interventions.

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“…A fast pace of nutrient cycling results in positive feedback to climate change due to increased soil respiration and decomposition emitting more CO 2 and N 2 O (by product of nitrogen cycle). Climate warming has also been known for increasing the rate of production of root nodules accelerating nitrogen uptake, making nitrogen rich leaf litter and ultimately more N 2 O emissions from decomposing litter [41].…”

Section: Nutrient Cycling and Soil Formationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Inter-specific differences have also been observed for tropical and subtropical forests in response to climate warming. The subtropical evergreen broadleaved species have been documented for showing increase in overall growth and biomass carbon accumulation in response to projected climatic warming while the subtropical deciduous species have been reported for reduction in their regulatory ecosystem service [41].…”

Section: Climate Regulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecosystem Services in the Changing Climate: Calling Attention for the Conservation of Tropical and Subtropical Forests

Ghafoor¹,

Shahid²,

Ali³

et al. 2023

Tropical Forests - Ecology, Diversity and Conservation Status

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Tropical and subtropical forests have diverse ecological functions but are most disturbed due to climatic changes. Peer-reviewed articles, books and reports were searched and downloaded to analyze the effect of climatic changes on tropical and subtropical forests and highlight the need for conservation efforts to ensure sustainable supply of ecosystem services. These forests store largest share (55%) of global terrestrial carbon pool. But the projected rise in temperature (4oC), CO2 levels (495 ppm) and changes in precipitation regime by 2100 are expected to cause significant changes in ecosystem productivity and nutrient turnover rate making forests more vulnerable to climate change. High temperature with low rainfall reduces tree growth, increases soil carbon fluxes by accelerating rate of nutrient cycling, restricts the range of pollinators and increases pest infestation (Phytophthora cinnamomi) affecting ecosystem health and future food security. Increase in heat waves increase the incidence of wild fires and degrade ecosystem quality. Climate change also reduces the scenic beauty, ecotourism and associated economic and mental health benefits. Proactive measures must be taken to mitigate the likely causes of climate change and efforts should be taken to conserve the existing forest reserves to ensure sustainable supply of the ecosystem services.

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Effect of climate warming on seedling growth and biomass accumulation of Acacia modesta and Olea ferruginea in a subtropical scrub forest of Pakistan

Cited by 6 publications

References 34 publications

Ensemble modeling to predict the impact of future climate change on the global distribution of Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata

Ensemble modeling to predict the impact of future climate change on the global distribution of Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata

Assessing the impact of land use land cover change on regulatory ecosystem services of subtropical scrub forest, Soan Valley Pakistan

Ecosystem Services in the Changing Climate: Calling Attention for the Conservation of Tropical and Subtropical Forests

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