Effect of early grade retention on school completion: A prospective study.

Abstract

This 14 year prospective study investigated the effect of retention in grades 1–5 on high school completion (diploma, GED, or drop out). Participants were 734 (52.7% males) ethnically diverse, academically at-risk students recruited from Texas schools into the study when they were in first grade (mean age = 6.57). Propensity score weighting successfully equated the 256 retained students and the 478 students continuously promoted students on 65 covariates assessed in grade 1. At the end of 14 years, 477 had earned a diploma, 21 had obtained a GED, 110 had dropped out, and 126 were missing school completion status. Using multinomial logistic regression with high school graduation as the reference outcome, retention led to a significant increase in the likelihood of dropping out of high school (odds ratio = 2.61), above students’ propensity to be retained and additional covariates. The contrast between graduation and GED outcomes was not significant. A significant Retention X Ethnicity X Gender interaction was obtained: The negative effect of retention was strongest for African American and Hispanic girls. Even though grade retention in the elementary grades does not harm students in terms of their academic achievement or educational motivation at the transition to high school, retention increases the odds that a student will drop out of school before obtaining a high school diploma.

Propensity Score Analysis in Non‐Randomized Experimental Designs: An Overview and a Tutorial Using R Software

“…First, the tutorial utilizes only logistic regression without any interaction terms and examines only the SMDs to assess covariate balance. As a note, the tutorial replicated the logistic regression method which yielded best covariate balance in the original study (Hughes et al., ). Also, the original analysis reported that variance ratio (VR) statistics for all covariates after weighting were within the recommended (0.5, 2.0) range for well‐balanced covariates.…”

“…After careful consideration and discussions between content and methodological experts, in total, sixty‐four baseline covariates were selected as baseline covariates to predict the PS to retain a grade. The baseline covariates included standardized performance scores, parent, child, and classmate responses on the target child's characteristics, and school‐level data (more details are given in Hughes et al., ). A binary logistic regression was used for the PS estimation model.…”

“…However, behavioral researchers who study human participants are often confronted with situations where randomization is not possible or unethical. For example, in education, it would be unethical to randomize students to remain in a grade for another year while other students promote a grade (Hughes, West, Kim, & Bauer, ). In clinical practice, participants may want to choose which treatment they receive or even decide not to participate in any of the offered treatments (Tein et al., ).…”

“…Further discussions about PSA in developmental research is provided in the section Discussion. The featured dataset for the tutorial is from a 14‐year longitudinal study examining the effect of grade retention on high school graduation status (Hughes et al., ). While the original study examines the grade retention effect on high school graduation, the tutorial here focuses on the prediction of postsecondary education enrollment status.…”

Motivation for Educational Attainment in Grade 9 Predicts High School Completion

“…Details on study procedures for tracking students’ graduation status are reported in Hughes, West, Kim, and Bauer ().…”