This 14 year prospective study investigated the effect of retention in grades 1–5 on high school completion (diploma, GED, or drop out). Participants were 734 (52.7% males) ethnically diverse, academically at-risk students recruited from Texas schools into the study when they were in first grade (mean age = 6.57). Propensity score weighting successfully equated the 256 retained students and the 478 students continuously promoted students on 65 covariates assessed in grade 1. At the end of 14 years, 477 had earned a diploma, 21 had obtained a GED, 110 had dropped out, and 126 were missing school completion status. Using multinomial logistic regression with high school graduation as the reference outcome, retention led to a significant increase in the likelihood of dropping out of high school (odds ratio = 2.61), above students’ propensity to be retained and additional covariates. The contrast between graduation and GED outcomes was not significant. A significant Retention X Ethnicity X Gender interaction was obtained: The negative effect of retention was strongest for African American and Hispanic girls. Even though grade retention in the elementary grades does not harm students in terms of their academic achievement or educational motivation at the transition to high school, retention increases the odds that a student will drop out of school before obtaining a high school diploma.

The Motivation for Educational Attainment (MEA) questionnaire, developed to assess facets related to early adolescents’ motivation to complete high school, has a bifactor structure with a large general factor and three smaller orthogonal specific factors (teacher expectations, peer aspirations, value of education). This prospective validity study investigated the utility of each factor in predicting high school dropout or completion of a general education development (GED) certificate versus completion of a high school degree. Participants were 474 (55.1% male) ethnically diverse students who were originally recruited into a larger longitudinal study in Grade 1 on the basis of academic risk. Fourteen years later, 373 had obtained a high school diploma, 15 had obtained a GED, and 86 had dropped out of high school. During their first year of Grade 9, participants were administered the MEA. Using multinomial logistic regression with high school graduation as the reference outcome and controlling for Grade 9 letter grades, reading and math test scores, gender, and ethnic/racial group status, scores on the latent general factor and the latent peer aspirations factor predicted high school dropout versus high school graduation status. Neither the general factor nor any of the three specific factors predicted GED completion versus high school graduation. Ethnicity, but not gender, moderated the associations between scores on the general factor and high school graduation versus dropout.