Effect of Interdecadal Variation in Southern Indian Ocean SST on the Relationship Between ENSO and Summer Precipitation in the Asian‐Pacific Monsoon Region

Gao, Ya; Chen, Dong; Wang, Huijun; Ma, Jiehua; Wang, Tao

doi:10.1029/2021jd036151

JGR Atmospheres

2022

DOI: 10.1029/2021jd036151

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Effect of Interdecadal Variation in Southern Indian Ocean SST on the Relationship Between ENSO and Summer Precipitation in the Asian‐Pacific Monsoon Region

Ya Gao

Dong Chen

Huijun Wang

et al.

Abstract: The Asian-Pacific region is a complex air-sea interaction area and an important water vapor channel in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. In this region, there is Hadley circulation, monsoon and cross equatorial flow in the meridional direction and Walker circulation and Indian Ocean Walker circulation in the zonal direction. Because of the complexity of this region, Asian-Pacific summer precipitation is affected by many factors, such as monsoons, atmospheric circulation, Indian and Pacific Ocean sea surfa… Show more

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Cited by 3 publications

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Quantifying the internal and external drivers of Southeast Asian rainfall extremes on decadal timescales

Wang,

Ummenhofer,

Murty

et al. 2024

Clim Dyn

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Rainfall over mainland Southeast Asia experiences variability on seasonal to decadal timescales in response to a multitude of climate phenomena. Historical records and paleoclimate archives that span the last millennium reveal extreme multi-year rainfall variations that significantly affected the societies of mainland Southeast Asia. Here we utilize the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) to quantify the contributions of internal and external drivers to decadal-scale rainfall extremes in the Southeast Asia region. We find that internal variability was dominant in driving both Southeast Asian drought and pluvial extremes on decadal timescales although external forcing impacts are also detectable. Specifically, rainfall extremes are more sensitive to Pacific Ocean internal variability than the state of the Indian Ocean. This discrepancy is greater for droughts than pluvials which we suggest is attributable to external forcing impacts that counteract the forced Indian Ocean teleconnections to Southeast Asia. Volcanic aerosols, the most effective radiative forcing during the last millennium, contributed to both the Ming Dynasty Drought (1637–1643) and the Strange Parallels Drought (1756–1768). From the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age, we observe a shift in Indo-Pacific teleconnection strength to Southeast Asia consistent with enhanced volcanism during the latter interval. This work not only highlights asymmetries in the drivers of rainfall extremes but also presents a framework for quantifying multivariate drivers of decadal-scale variability and hydroclimatic extremes.

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Quantifying the internal and external drivers of Southeast Asian rainfall extremes on decadal timescales

Wang,

Ummenhofer,

Murty

et al. 2024

Clim Dyn

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Possible influence of the interdecadal variation of the extratropical southern Indian Ocean SST on East Asian summer monsoon precipitation

Yang

et al. 2023

Atmospheric Research

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Understanding the Interdecadal Changes in the Teleconnection Pattern of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation With Concurrent ENSO

Fan,

Yang,

2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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Interdecadal changes in the relationship between East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation (EASMP) and the concurrent El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) vary across subregions, making it challenging to holistically understand these variations and the underlying mechanisms. To address this issue, we apply the moving correlation Empirical Orthogonal Function (MC‐EOF) between EASMP and ENSO, identifying a meridional tri‐pole pattern in the interdecadal variation of their relationship. The primary driver of this pattern is the summer Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature, which has shifted from being uncorrelated to exhibiting a strong negative correlation with concurrent ENSO since the late 1980s. Consequently, the TNA's influence on EASMP combines with ENSO's effects, altering the EASMP pattern during ENSO events. This conclusion is supported by two observations: (a) the moving correlation series between TNA and ENSO aligns with the time series of MC‐EOF‐1, and (b) the MC‐EOF‐1 pattern spatially matches the TNA's impact on EASMP.

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Effect of Interdecadal Variation in Southern Indian Ocean SST on the Relationship Between ENSO and Summer Precipitation in the Asian‐Pacific Monsoon Region

Cited by 3 publications

References 52 publications

Quantifying the internal and external drivers of Southeast Asian rainfall extremes on decadal timescales

Quantifying the internal and external drivers of Southeast Asian rainfall extremes on decadal timescales

Possible influence of the interdecadal variation of the extratropical southern Indian Ocean SST on East Asian summer monsoon precipitation

Understanding the Interdecadal Changes in the Teleconnection Pattern of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation With Concurrent ENSO

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