Effect of Sea Level Rise and Increase in Typhoon Intensity on Coastal Structures in Tokyo Bay

Hoshino, Sayaka; Esteban, Miguel; Mikami, Takahito; Takabatake, Tomoyuki; Shibayama, Tomoya

doi:10.1142/9789814412216_0013

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Hoshino et al (2011) used the research ofYasuda et al (2010a) to determine that this typhoon (the worst historical typhoon in the 20th century in Tokyo Bay) in the year 2100 would have a minimum central pressure of 933.9hPa instead of the historically recorded value of 952.7hPa, which could result in an amplifi cation of the expected storm surge height by +0.5m with respect to the historical event. Despite this analysis, the possibility of an event similar to the 1959 Isewan typhoon causing +3.5m of surge in Tokyo Bay should not be dismissed entirely.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Climate Change and Adaptation Planning for Ports

Ng¹,

Becker²,

Cahoon³

et al. 2015

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As key links in transportation and supply chains, the effect of climate change on seaports has broad implications for the development prospects of the global economy. However, the picture is very uncertain because t he impacts of climate change will be felt very differently around the world, both positively and negatively. This book addresses the need for quality theoretical analysis, highly innovative assessment methodologies and insightful empirical global experiences so as to identify the best international practices, planning and appropriate policies to effectively adapt to, develop resilience to and, indeed, benefi t from the impacts posed by climate change on transportation and supply chains.With contributions from reputable scholars, inter-governmental organizations and senior professionals in transportation and supply chains coming from fi ve continents, this book investigates climate change, adaptation strategies and planning of transportation and supply chains from different angles. It encourages innovative and effective solutions in developing adaptation measures and resilience by ports, transportation and supply chains to climate change. This book will be essential for anyone interested in understanding climate change and its impacts on transportation and supply chain infrastructures, as well as the effective ways to adapt to such impacts.

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“…, H., Kashihara, H.,Esteban, M. and Shibayama, T. (2011). "Assessment of future stability of breakwaters under climate change", Coastal Engineering Journal, 53(1):21-39.…”

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Climate Change and Adaptation Planning for Ports

Ng¹,

Becker²,

Cahoon³

et al. 2015

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“…Special threats to the region are flooding and the increased pressures that climate change may present in terms of both river and sea floods [12,13] and the failure of sea defences [14]. As Tokyo is a coastal city, sea level rise makes low lying areas additionally vulnerable to increased flooding, with Estaban et al [15], arguing that "The combined effect of an increase in typhoon intensity and sea level rise could pose significant challenges to coastal defences around Tokyo Bar around the turn of the twenty-first century."…”

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confidence: 99%

Mapping Climate Change, Natural Hazards and Tokyo’s Built Heritage

2020

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Although climate change is well recognised as an important issue in Japan, there has been little interest from scientists or the public on the potential threat it poses to heritage. The present study maps the impact of emerging pressures on museums and historic buildings in the Tokyo Area. We examine a context to the threat in terms of fluctuating levels of visitors as a response to environmental issues, from SARS and COVID-19, through to earthquakes. GIS mapping allows a range of natural and human-induced hazards to be expressed as the spatial spread of risk. Temperature is increasing and Tokyo has a heat island which makes the city hotter than its surroundings. This adds to the effects of climate change. Temperature increases and a decline in relative humidity alter the potential for mould growth and change insect life cycles. The region is vulnerable to sea level rise, but flooding is also a likely outcome of increasingly intense falls of rain, especially during typhoons. Reclamation has raised the risk of liquefaction during earthquakes that are relatively frequent in Japan. Earthquakes cause structural damage and fires after the rupture of gas pipelines and collapse of electricity pylons. Fires from lightning strikes might also increase in a future Tokyo. These are especially relevant, as many Japanese heritage sites use wood for building materials. In parallel, more natural landscapes of the region are also affected by a changing climate. The shifting seasons already mean the earlier arrival of the cherry blossom and a later arrival of autumn colours and a lack of winter snow. The mapping exercise should highlight the spatial distribution of risk and the way it is likely to change, so it can contribute to longer term heritage management plans.

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“…Their review suggests that the intensity of tropical cyclones in the future could increase by between 2 and 11% by 2100. This could have important consequences for the flooding of coastal areas (Hoshino et al 2011), port infrastructure and operations (Esteban et al, 2009) and the Japanese economy in general .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comprehensive Numerical Simulation of Waves Caused by Typhoon Using a Meteorology-Wave-Storm Surge-Tide Coupled Model

Ohira

Shibayama²,

Esteban³

et al. 2012

Int. Conf. Coastal. Eng.

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The present study focuses on the risks of storm surge caused by future increases in typhoon intensity due to climate change. These risks were analyzed by integrating weather, wave, storm surge and tide prediction systems into a new simulation methodology. This model, which the authors developed by themselves, makes it possible to calculate the weather fields of typhoons in the past as well as in the future on the basis of meteorology and can simulate waves in a complex geographical area, in contrast with many previous storm surge simulation methods which were not based on accurate meteorological models. The model was verified to accurately reproduce historical typhoons and waves and thus is a useful tool for the analysis of future climate risks.

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Effect of Sea Level Rise and Increase in Typhoon Intensity on Coastal Structures in Tokyo Bay

Abstract: This expert paper is reproduced by the UNCTAD secretariat in the form and language in which it has been received. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the UNCTAD.

Cited by 5 publications

References 5 publications

Climate Change and Adaptation Planning for Ports

Climate Change and Adaptation Planning for Ports

Mapping Climate Change, Natural Hazards and Tokyo’s Built Heritage

Comprehensive Numerical Simulation of Waves Caused by Typhoon Using a Meteorology-Wave-Storm Surge-Tide Coupled Model

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