Abstract. The identification of those persons in the population who have the highest risk of future cardiovascular events is important for targeting intensive preventive efforts. This can be reliably done using a handful of long since established risk factors. The unmet need for new molecular biomarkers for prediction of cardiovascular events in the general population is therefore low. In order for a new biomarker to be used clinically for risk prediction, a statistically significant association of levels of the biomarker to adverse outcome is not enough, but the biomarker should also be demonstrated to add discriminative capacity beyond established risk factors. In contrast to the limited value of new biomarkers for risk prediction, their usefulness for unraveling the pathophysiology of cardiovascular disease is large. The myocardium is the source of a vast number of interesting biomarkers, of which a few may be useful for risk prediction in the general population. Two of these, troponin-I and the N-terminal fragment of brain natriuretic peptide, have passed tests of added discriminatory value. Numerous other biomarkers produced by cardiomyocytes or non-cardiomyocytes in the myocardium are promising, and if they are not proven useful for risk prediction, they will unquestionably enhance our understanding of cardiovascular disease.Keywords: Risk, epidemiology, population, biomarker, peptide, myocardium
The need for prediction and prevention of cardiovascular eventsCardiovascular diseases kill half of the population in developed countries, and seriously disable a further large number. A high cardiovascular disease death rate in elderly persons is unavoidable, but prevention of cardiovascular deaths in younger individuals is highly prioritized, as recently outlined in the European Heart Health Charter [1].Sudden cardiac death is sometimes the first manifestation of cardiovascular disease, and traditional risk factors can be identified beforehand in a minority of these persons [2]. Further, one out of four myocardial infarctions resulting in Q-waves are asymptomatic [3], and smaller myocardial infarctions may be asymptomatic * Corresponding author: Johan Sundström, MD PhD, Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University Hospital, SE-751 85 Uppsala, Sweden. Tel.: +46 18 6119889 or +46 70 4225220; Fax: +46 18 509297; E-mail: johan.sundstrom@medsci.uu.se. in as much as four out of five victims [4]. Hence, the high risk strategy will not be sufficient in these cases.In order to prevent as many of premature cardiovascular deaths as possible, the Charter therefore calls for the use of both the population strategy (treating the whole population with measures such as smoking prevention or cessation, physical activity, and fruit and vegetable intake) and the high-risk strategy (identifying persons at high risk and treating risk factors aggressively). This article reviews some of the tools available for the latter strategy.
The role of biomarkers in the identification of high-risk personsThe term risk factor was coined fi...